Leicester have not won away from home in the Premiership for the best part of two years and the chances are that run won’t come to an end this weekend, as Quins are 11-point favourites and have a more settled look to their line-up. Plus Jasper Wiese, Tigers’ standout player, is not playing.
While Leicester have definitely made strides forward under Steve Borthwick and are using their maul to good effect to score tries, they are probably still some way off stopping a rampant Quins side that has taken on a new lease of life since DoR Paul Gustard left.
Quins have threats all over the park and are capable of scoring points very quickly if they are in the mood. They also possess the league’s top points scorer in Marcus Smith, who is a 90% kicker, and average 30 points per game.
Leicester should have their moments in the game, though. Opposing teams average more carries, more passes, more rucks and more lineouts won and also have the ball for longer periods of play against Quins than any other team,
Tigers’ points tally is not too shabby, either, at an average of 25 per Premiership match, so we are going to steer away from the handicap and the team and total points market and focus on the first half points instead.
In drawing against London Irish and then beating Wasps and Bath away from home, handsomely, Quins have always managed to get points on the board early.
Across those three matches, 56% of their 104 points have come before the break with an average of 19. Meanwhile, Tigers average 12 first-half points since the turn of the year.
Quins to win (1/4, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfred)
Over 24.5 points in the first half (4/5, Paddy Power)
Harlequins: 15. Mike Brown, 14. Louis Lynagh, 13. Joe Marchant, 12. Andre Esterhuizen, 11. Aaron Morris, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Danny Care, 1. Joe Marler, 2. Scott Baldwin, 3. Simon Kerrod, 4 Matt Symons, 5. Stephan Lewies, 6. Archie White, 7. Will Evans, 8. Alex Dombrandt.
Replacements: 16. Elia Elia, 17. Santiago Garcia Botta, 18. Wilco Louw, 19. Glen Young, 20. Richard de Carpentier, 21. Martin Landajo, 22. Brett Herron, 23. Ben Tapuai.
15. Freddie Steward, 14. Matías Moroni, 13. Jaco Taute (c) 12. Matt Scott, 11. Kini Murimurivalu, 10. Zack Henry, 9. Jack Van Poortvliet, 1. Luan de Bruin, 2. Julián Montoya, 3. Joe Heyes, 4. Tomás Lavanini, 5. Calum Green, 6. George Martin, 7. Cyle Brink, 8. Hanro Liebenberg.
Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Nephi Leatigaga, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Harry Wells, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Ben White, 22. Johnny McPhillips, 23. Dan Kelly.