- Connacht to beat Dragons (4/9)
- Zebre +21 on the h'cap v Scarlets
- 7/4 Double
The Guinness PRO14 continues this weekend with a full set of fixtures except for the postponed Munster v Benneton game.
Wooton it be wonderful …
Connacht arrive at Rodney Parade fresh from having a week off and look ready to build on their impressive 37-26 win at Edinburgh in Round 3. Their Round 4 contest with Benetton Rugby was postponed due to an outbreak of coronavirus in the Italian camp.
Dragons are winless in their last 15 games against Irish opposition and the visitors could be boosted by the provincial return of internationals such as Jack Carty, Kieran Marmion and Ultan Dillane.
Despite some high-profile additions to their squad, notably in the backs with the recruitment of Jamie Roberts and fellow centre Nick Tompkins, the Dragons have fallen short of expectations and go into the match only one off the bottom in Conference B, whereas Connacht are third in the embryonic Conference A table.
In tight-looking contests such as these, a reliable goal-kicker is a must, and for all his undoubted talent as a playmaker, Sam Davies is having a nightmare in this respect.
The former Ospreys man has missed kicks than he’s made this season and has yet to convert any of his side’s five PRO14 tries.
Connacht, on the other hand, have been keeping the scoreboard steadily ticking over through the boots of Carty and Tom Daly.
Connacht will fancy their chances of applying scoreboard pressure through tries as well as penalties, given the Dragons have let the opposition in for 16 tries this season – the most of any team.
Alex Wootton is their most dangerous runner at present and weighed in with a brace against Edinburgh.
Edinburgh profited with four close-range tries against Connacht, scoring twice from a catch-and-drive lineout. But the Dragons may not even be able to find solace in that route to the try-line as their success rate on their own throw is only 78%.
So far, they have failed to hit one of their own men on 13 occasions, which is, again, more than any other team in the PRO14.
Zebre to earn their stripes
Granted they are unlikely to play a fourth consecutive game with 14 men, but to expect Scarlets to overcome a 21-point deficit at home to Zebre (10/11) on Sunday looks a very big ask.
Remember this is a Scarlets team that has struggled find its attacking mojo since the new Guinness PRO14 started, scoring a paltry 20 points in their last three PRO14 outings.
A 21-point handicap is the rugby equivalent of three converted tries and Scarlets have managed just two in that time, relying instead from the accurate boot of Leigh Halfpenny for their points.
Zebre are not exactly known for cutting teams apart either, and are decidedly dodgy away from home, but they have scored more than twice as many points (49) and have five tries to their name.
With international call-ups causing disruption to both teams, another fragmented affair can be expected in west Wales.
And while it’s hard to see Zebre backing up last week’s 23-17 win against Ospreys with another victory against Welsh opponents, they should run the Scarlets closer than the bookies predict.
