- Georgia <9.5 points v England (10/11)
- Jamie George 1st try-scorer (8/1)
The US state of Georgia has ordered a full hand recount of presidential election votes and their European namesakes may feel like doing the same on the rugby pitch come the final whistle at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon.
The scoreboard might not make pretty reading on what could be a chastening afternoon for the Lelos. Remember what happened to the last team to play in purple at the famous stadium? It didn’t end well. England had their pants pulled down by Argentina in the late noughties.
Power pack not enough
While that was a shock result at the time, no-one expects Georgia to trouble England beyond the odd mighty shove in the scrum. Disrespectful it may be, but it’s a sad fact that the Lelos have regressed since their 2015 World Cup heroics.
Mamuka Gorgodze has retired, as have two other caps centurions, Davit Kacharava and Merab Kvirikashvili, while Inspirational head coach Milton Haig has been replaced by rookie Levan Maisashvili. This is a team in transition.
Georgia have some fine young players coming through, like the half-backs Tedo Abzhandadze and Gela Aprasidze, but outside of those two young tyros, they don’t appear to have enough cutting edge to trouble England.
In their last six Tests against sides higher-ranked than them, they have only managed more than one try once (two against Wales at the World Cup). If they got into double figures, it would be a surprise (Georgia are 10/11 to score under 9.5 points).
Backs against the wall
Georgia have made around 400 tackles in their last two Tests (defeats to Australia and Scotland), and if they are pressed into a similar defensive rearguard again, the pressure is bound to tell.
Unlike Georgia, England have game-breakers all over the pitch and will berate themselves if they fall under the half-century mark. But England don’t often hammer sides like they did in the past, so we’d caution against backing them to score more than nine tries, especially if the ball is greasy.
The Lelos penalty count was also high in those last two matches (15 and 16), and if they’re guilty of such ill-discipline again, it will hand plenty of kick-to-the-corner opportunities for either Owen Farrell or Henry Slade.
You can almost picture the sight of Jamie George throwing the ball in, swinging around to the back of the maul and barrelling his way over.
George is 8/1 to score the first try but a fun bet (Paddy Power 35/1) may be to back the Sarries hooker to score first tied in with Jonathan Joseph (selected on the wing) to bag a brace.
