Memories of Italy’s last home win in Rome are as fuzzy as Scotland stand-off Duncan Weir’s hair.
You have to go back to March 2013, when they shocked Ireland, to find the last time that they threw the opposition to the Lions in the city famed for gladiators rather than be the sacrificial lambs themselves.
While this match is in Florence, at a venue where they famously beat the Springboks in 2016, it’s still hard to make an argument for an Azzurri win.
Given Scotland are looking in better shape – other than Weir’s flamboyant hairstyle – than they have for some time, that trend probably isn’t about to change.
Don’t go with the Flo, just low
However, backing Scotland to give any team ranked in the top 15 a 12-point headstart is not something you would do with the utmost confidence.
Instead, we’re going to focus on the Under/Overs match points market, which stands at 48.5.
Italy have only scored six tries in their five matches in 2020 and drew a blank in losing 17-0 to Scotland in the Six Nations.
Scotland, meanwhile, have won their last four, including their last two away from Murrayfield.
However, the loss of Finn Russell undeniably makes them weaker as an attacking force.
Without the Racing 92 playmaker in the team, they failed to score a try in their opening couple of Six Nations matches this year.
Paying the Price?
Weir makes his first start since 2016 in his place and is partnered at half-back by Ali Price.
Price has been guilty of being slow to get the ball away from the base of the ruck and that could also impinge on their ability to get the backline moving fluidly.
Scotland average 35 points in their last five games against Italy, and if they maintain that trend in Rome, you’d still fancy on the Unders market coming good, such is the paucity of Italy’s attack.
Scotland have also improved defensively with Steve Tandy now taking care of that side of things, and their hard-fought 14-10 win over Wales showed they are more than capable of keeping sides of that calibre at bayit’ still hard to make an argument for them coming out on top.
