- <45.5 points England v Ireland (5/6)
- Wales to beat Georgia 11-20 points (16/5)
With the cancellation of Fiji’s latest Autumn Nations Cup match due to Covid-19, the second round of the Autumn Nations Cup is an all-European affair.
Instead of kicking off with Italy’s game against Fiji on Friday, England and Ireland get the action underway at Twickenham at 3pm on Saturday afternoon, with Wales versus Georgia from Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli following on straight after.
England have had the measure of Ireland in their last three meetings and it’s difficult to see that changing.
Ireland’s power-based game, worked so well against Wales, but you’d anticipate the packs cancelling each other out on Saturday.
The old adage that says forwards win the game, and the backs decide by how many normally rings true. But with both teams looking evenly-matched in the set-piece and at close quarters, the likes of Elliot Daly and Jonny could be the game-changers on this occasion.
Lowe-down
In defence, England will have identified Ireland’s two Kiwi new caps, James Lowe and Jamison Gibson-Park as threats.
Lowe made a try-scoring debut in the 32-9 win over Wales, and is a hard man to put down, while Leinster team-mate Gibson-Park injected some much-needed tempo to Ireland’s play.
But Lowe’s opposite man at Twickenham, Jonathan Joseph, is very good defensively and will back himself to shut out Lowe, while there aren’t too many better in the game at slowing opposition ball down at ruck time than England flankers, Tom Curry and Sam Underhill.
Fortress to stay intact
Ireland are one of only two teams to have won at ‘fortress’ Twickenham in the last five years – a run of 27 matches – but this is a side in the making, not the Grand Slam vintage of 2018.
Historically, points have been at a premium in England-Ireland fixtures with something riding on them – basically anything other than World Cup warm-ups – so the 12-point handicap placed on England might be a tad high.
For us, the Under 45.5 match points market looks more favourable. In the last 15 Six Nations meetings, the average points per match comes to just 31, and neither side have set the world on fire with ball in hand lately.
Big odds
Georgia to win: 20/1? Surely not! Yes, those were the odds earlier in the week for Georgia to beat Wales before being cut to 14/1, while the handicap for the Lelos has gone down from 28 points to 22.
While we’re not saying Wales will come unstuck, backing the Lelos at this moment in time, at such inflated odds, is worth a little wager of anyone’s money.
Wales are on their third-worst losing run of all-time (six matches) and have failed to score a try for the first time in 20-odd matches against Ireland.
To expect them to suddenly flick the switch and be transformed overnight because Wayne Pivac has made 13 changes is a little short-sighted.
Yes, the likes of Test debutants Kieran Hardy, Johnny Williams and James Botham, and first-time starters, Louis Rees-Zammit and Callum Sheedy will inject some much-needed vigour into an out-of-sorts setup.
But what happens if Georgia get on top in the scrum, kick a few early penalties and the nerves start to creep in?
Justin Tipuric captains Wales for only the second time and may have a job calming things down if the Lelos can start better than they did against England and turn the screw at the set-piece. Without experienced heads like Ken Owens and Alun Wyn Jones to turn to, openside Tipuric might feel isolated on the leadership front.
Scrum all ye faithful
The Georgians are the last team you want to be playing when you’re struggling as badly as Wales are at scrum-time – they only won one of their five put-ins against Ireland. They may be mostly bald and bearded but Georgians forwards won’t be in the mood to hand out any early Christmas presents. Four lineouts were also lost in Dublin.
Without a solid platform upfront and a rush Georgian defence in their faces, Wales’ new boys might struggle to get the quick, front-foot ball they crave.
Realistically, Wales should have enough to pull through and get the win they so badly need but it might not be all plain sailing, especially with wind and rain forecast.
A Wales win by 11-20 points is 16/5.
Scotland v France preview to follow
