- Leinster v Ulster <46.5 points (10/11 Betfair)
- Leinster v Ulster <5.5 tries (11/10 Paddy Power)
- Glasgow v Edinburgh <36.5 points (11/12, RedZone)
Ulster have only ever beaten Leinster once in Dublin since 1999 and are the same odds as Connacht were to win last weekend (13/2) when they take on the reigning PRO14 champions at the RDS Arena on Friday night.
History tells us they haven’t got a prayer but following last weekend’s win over Munster, the Conference A table-toppers travel to Dublin full of confidence.
Leinster fielded a weakened team against Connacht and came unstuck, the westerners ending their 26-match PRO14 unbeaten run with a deserved 35-24 victory.
But back-to-back defeats are unheard of for the men in blue – they have never lost twice in succession at the RDS – and the bookies’ confidence in their ability to bounce back is also reflective of the way they comfortably saw off Ulster in last season’s PRO14 final a few short months ago.
There has been a lot of chat from the Ulster camp this week whilst Leinster have preferred to keep their counsel. That’s the way class sides operate; trash talk normally hides insecurities closer to home, and Ulster know that their 10-point lead over Leinster at the top of the table will count for nothing if they don’t deliver tonight.
Extra motivation for Ulster comes from the presence of a plethora of ex-Leinster players in their ranks, and the same was true of Connacht last weekend.
While that worked against them last weekend, we cannot see Leinster slipping up twice with the side they have put out. Big teams rise to the big occasion, and there aren’t many of those in the PRO14 at the moment, but this is one.
And with Johnny Sexton selected at 10 and 14 other internationals keeping him company in the starting XV, Leinster mean business.
Points market
Leinster are unbackable at 1/6 and the handicap of -14 looks about right, if not maybe ever so slightly generous to the visitors given a cold, crisp night will make handling difficult, so where does the value lie?
Leinster and Ulster top the try-scoring charts in the PRO14 with the Belfast outfit averaging 4.5 tries per game and Leinster 5.5.
However, these impressive stats have largely come against vastly inferior teams and to expect another try-fest tonight would be misguided.
Ulster have yet to leak four tries in a PRO14 fixture this season and it has only happened to Leinster once, so defensively both sides are relatively strong.
The 11/10 Paddy Power are offering for <5.5 tries in the total tries market has caught our interest, while you can get a best-priced 10/11 (Betfair) for <46.5 points.
Winter of discontent
Two poor teams go head to head at Scotstoun in a match that doesn’t look like it will warm the hearts ona cold winter’s evening.
Both teams are only averaging 10 points per match over the last six fixtures, which included a 10-7 win for Edinburgh the last time the sides met last week.
All of the points in that match were registered in the last 15 minutes and I doubt many people are banking on it being a classic tonight.
Edinburgh made the sum total of one clean break all match and tries will again be at a premium you would have thought.
With neither team exactly on fire from the kicking tee, another low-scoring affair – even less than 36.5 points – looks in prospect (11/12 RedZone).
