- London Irish v Newcastle: Total Points <39.5 (10/11, Paddy Power)
- Wasps 1/2 (Betfred) to beat Harlequins
- Quins HT/Wasps FT (11/2, Paddy Power)
- Alex Dombrandt (21/10) and Tom Cruse anytime try-scorer (23/10, Paddy Power)
This is a game that appears to have all the hallmarks of a tight, physical clash where no quarter will be asked or given.
Newcastle have refused to give in to the notion that their bubble will burst sooner or later, and it is hard to back against them even if they are playing a spirited and talented London Irish side that impressed in a high-scoring draw against Harlequins last time out.
So, our preference for this game is to ignore the handicap line of +2 in Irish’s favour and focus on the total match points market instead.
Prior to their 25-25 draw with Quins, Irish had only averaged 15 points per game in the league this season, and relied heavily on the boot of Paddy Jackson. Newcastle’s defence has been a real area of consistency under the coaching of Nick Easter and even without their two international back-rowers, it is hard to see them being as soft a touch as Quins were.
Newcastle’s impressive start to the season has been built on defence, and while they are capable of putting together good attacking moves and hurting sides, they are rarely in try-bonus point territory, which is why we are recommending Under 39.5 total match points are today’s bet. Recent history supports this, too, as less than 40 points have been scored in four of the last six fixtures between the sides.
Cruse control … after half-time
Wasps are missing two of the most in-form players in the Gallagher Premiership at the moment in England call-ups, Paolo Odogwu and Jack Willis, but they still possess a wealth of talent – and, just as importantly, belief – to see off a Quins side still coming to terms with Paul Gustard’s departure to Italy.
There’s been talk that that Gustard’s exit was player-led and, if so, there could be a positive kick-back. However, in these type of circumstances it tends to be more profitable to back the team that is settled, happy and playing consistently than one where dressing room drama seems embedded in the culture.
Joe Launchbury is a big player for Wasps but having Wales lock Will Rowlands available offsets that loss to a large degree, while the decision of Matteo Minozzi not to take part in the Six Nations adds considerable flair to the Wasps backline, which is also boosted by the return from injury of Zach Kibirige and Malakai Fekitoa.
Quins’ line-up is a real mix of youth and experience. Joe Marler, Danny Care and Mike Brown were three England regulars until recently, and Marcus Smith and Joe Marchant, while still relatively young, are nearing 100 appearances for the west Londoners.
That said, Wasps versus Quins games are ones where passions are roused and we think Wasps have the mentality and the form to get the job done in a match where points should be plentiful.
If the 1/2 about Wasps winning lacks appeal, check out the Double Result market.
Wasps scored 24 first-half points in their 52-44 rout of Bath in Round 6 but still trailed by five points at the break. In fact, Wasps have been behind at half-time in four out of their six league games and, until The Rec rampage, had only managed an average of 5.4 first-half points per match.
With that in mind, the rugby odds of 11/2 on a double result of Quins HT, Wasps FT look decent.
As for try-scorers, Tom Cruse has dotted down twice in this fixture before, which is a decent return considering he has only managed 11 in his 77-match top-flight career. The Wasps hooker has also found his way to the try-line on three occasions this season and is 23/10 to do so again at the Ricoh Arena this afternoon.
Quins No.8 Alex Dombrandt (21/10, Paddy Power) is level with Cruse on three tries for the season and is no stranger to the try line in Wasps-Quins fixtures either, after bagging a brace in Quins’ 32-23 defeat to Wasps back in September. He also scored in The Big Game at Twickenham two years ago.
