Make no mistake, the return of captain Joe Launchbury from injury is a huge boost for Wasps as they look to get out of their current slump.
A trip to wind-blown Newcastle on a Friday night is not normally seen as an ideal place to go for remedies – more like hangovers – but the lumbering sight of Launchbury in the second row will be massively reassuring.
Whilst one man does not make a team, Launchbury is the glue that knits Wasps together. In the 11 games he has played across the last two seasons, Wasps have only lost twice – against Sale and in the Premiership final against Exeter.
In two games this season, before he fractured his leg, Wasps beat the Chiefs 34-5 and then walloped Bath 52-44.
With Launchbury and fellow international, Wales’ Will Rowlands, locking down together, Wasps will fancy their chances of doing what Bath did to Newcastle last week and bully them in the driving maul. Defending that weapon more effectively will have been a major work-on for coach Nick Easter this week.
In Round 13, Newcastle were soundly beaten 38-19 by Bath – a team they had defeated in round one – but they can point to the loss of three key players, including both half-backs Michael Young and Joel Hodgson, on the eve of kick-off, as a mitigating factor.
Covid cancellations and a drop-off from their early season form has seen Newcastle’s wings clipped and they have fallen from the dizzy heights of second in the table in December to eighth.
Dean Richards’ side have recorded just two wins since the turn of the year, but that is nothing compared to Wasps’ decline.
The Six Nations cannot end soon enough for Wasps head coach Lee Blackett as the tournament has coincided with a run of just one win in six, although half of them have been by a slender margin, where the result could quite easily have gone the other way.
Key to Wasps chances will be getting enough possession in the right areas. Newcastle keep the ball longer than any other team other than Exeter, and they’ll want to starve former Falcon, Zach Kibirige of scoring opportunities, whilst also denying another former player, Jimmy Gopperth, easy shots at goal.
This is where rookie ref Andrew Woodthorpe comes in. He takes charge of only his fifth game in the top-flight, and the second involving Falcons. Woodthorpe only penalised them eight times when he stood in for their 15-9 home defeat to Exeter.
That figure was well down on Newcastle’s average of 11.2 per game for the season, and if the Falcons can keep on his right side again, that could tip the balance in their favour.
However, while Newcastle continue to miss a third of their shots at goal and struggle to get to try bonus point territory, the opposition are always going to be in with a chance so the margin of victory is likely to be tight. Newcastle won 27-17 when the sides met earlier in the season.
With the match capable of going either way, our recommendation is to avoid the 2-point handicap against Wasps and go under 45.5 points in the total points market instead (5/6, Paddy Power).
