Samoa v Tonga, Saturday July 10, kick-off 5.30am
2pts: Samoa -18 (10/11, general)
2pts: Samoa Over 3.5 tries (10/11, Paddy Power)
2pts: Over 21.5pts in the second half (4/5, Paddy Power)
Rugby World Cup 2023 qualification begins in Oceania in Auckland with the first of two legs between two sides that, according to the world rankings, look evenly matched – Tonga are 13th and Samoa 14th.
The reality is, however, that Samoa should win this hands down. Tonga’s team has barely been strengthened at all since last week’s 102-0 drubbing, with just two changes of personnel to the XV, and neither of them seemingly very significant.
At least coach Toutai Kefu can now call upon two players with Rugby World Cup experience if needed from the bench, after Ben Tameifuna and Nafi Tu’itavake became available.
Samoa only have one player with a caps total stretching into double figures but their line-up still has much more quality about it than the ‘Ikale Tahi.
Crusaders prop Michael Alaalatoa will captain Samoa for the first time in his sixth test and is one of eight players selected from Samoa’s RWC 2019 squad.
Given this is Samoa’s first Test since then, and Seilala Mapusua’s first Test in charge, it may take time for the boys in blue to hit their stride. For that reason, going over 21.5 points in the second half has some appeal.
Against a defence as porous as Tonga’s, Samoa will be disappointed if they don’t score more than 3.5 tries, too.
New Zealand v Fiji, Saturday July 10, kick-off 8.05am (UK)
2pts: Fiji >1.5 tries (4/7, Paddy Power)
1pt: Fiji +45 pts (10/11, general)
It’s incredible to think, and to the All Blacks shame, that 10 years have passed since New Zealand last took on Fiji. The All Blacks won 60-14 that day in Dunedin and the bookmakers reckon the margin will be very similar this time around in the same location.
New Zealand come into the match on the back of a thumping 102-0 defeat of Tonga last weekend in which Will Jordan scored five tries, while this will be Fiji’s first match since a 38-24 defeat of Georgia in the Autumn Nations Cup last December.
On that day at a rain-soaked Murrayfield, Fiji showed what they are all about, defying the miserable conditions to produce some dazzling rugby; it would be a major shock if they failed to trouble the scorers like hapless Tonga.
Fiji are looking strong again as a team, and while six months without a Test is not ideal, they can call on some household names.
Old fans’ favourite Leone Nakarawa hasn’t had much rugby since the Rugby World Cup and will be ready to go, while several of Vern Cotter’s team come into the game on the back of stellar seasons – Levani Botia for La Rochelle and Albert Tuisue for London Irish, to name two.
Meanwhile, Nemani Nadolo is still as dangerous a wing as any in test rugby and, in Ben Volavola, they have a fly-half capable of giving them a measure of control.
For New Zealand, the bulk of the experience in a side showing 13 changes from the practice run against Tonga comes from Brodie Retallick, who is making his first appearance since the bronze medal match at RWC 2019, captain Aaron Smith and half-back partner Beauden Barrett.
With nine players who played at the last Rugby World Cup in the Fijian ranks, this does not look like a match-up where there will be as many as 45 points between the teams as the bookies predict.
Whilst you would expect the home side to reach a half-century of points, the Islanders should be good for at least a couple of tries in reply, especially against opposition that wasn’t tested defensively last weekend and may be caught cold on occasions.
Wales v Argentina, Saturday July 10, kick-off 8.05am (UK)
2pts: Argentina win (12/5, Betfred)
1pt: Nicolas Sanchez anytime try-scorer (15/2, Paddy Power)
Argentina have only ever beaten Wales on Welsh soil twice in their history but Los Pumas have good memories of Cardiff.
Inspired by Nicolas Sanchez, Argentina ran riot against Ireland to reach the semi-finals of the 2015 Rugby World Cup. It was arguably in the top three of all-time Los Pumas performances.
Wales have made three personnel changes – all in the backline – from the Canada game with scrum-half Kieran Hardy and wingers Hallam Amos and Owen Lane coming in. Jonah Holmes moves to full-back to replace the injured Leigh Halfpenny.
Captain Jonathan Davies plays his 90th Test for Wales and is the only player in the squad with more than 50 caps. Make no mistake, this will be serious test of Wales’ Lions-hit resources, which makes us wonder why they are six-point favourites.
Sure, Los Pumas almost came unstuck against Romania in Bucharest last weekend, a 73rd minute try sparing their blushes. But you cannot help but think complacency and lengthy travel would have played a part.
Now that they have got the air miles out of their legs, a decent-looking team, with Sanchez still there to pull the strings, should push Wales to the absolute max, if not even get the win.
The 12/5 Betfred are offering looks good value for an away win, in what really is a 50:50 game.
A return of six tries in his last 20 matches suggests Sanchez, at 13/2, is worth a speculative anytime try-scorer punt.
England v Canada, Saturday July 10, kick-off 3.00pm
1pt: England -54pts (10/11, general)
England sort of fluffed their lines against the US Eagles six days ago, failing to get anywhere near the margin of victory predicted.
A worrying second-half performance allowed the Eagles back into the game and the North Americans actually ‘won’ the second half.
But while Gary Gold has managed to get the USA on an upward curve, Kingsley Jones is finding he’s got his work cut out making Canada competitive again.
Canada scored a couple of neat tries in losing 68-12 to Wales last weekend but overall it was a dispiriting performance.
England won’t have seen much to trouble them and will be eager to exploit the defensive lapses as ruthlessly as Wales. That Canada are +54 on the handicap just goes to show how far they have fallen.
Adam Radwan has looked electric in training by all accounts, untouchable in fact, and the Newcastle flyer should relish the wide open spaces of Twickenham, especially with the pack set to provide an endless supply of good quality ball. He is a best-priced 1/3 to score a try.
Ireland v USA, Saturday July 10, kick-off 7.15pm
1pt: Ireland -27pts (10/11, general)
1pt: Ryan Baird man of the match (8/1, Paddy Power)
Ireland have won all previous 10 Test encounters and that 100% record should stay intact this weekend.
Repeating the 43-point margin from the last time they met in 2018, however, will be a tall order for a side showing nine changes – one positional – from their ding-dong 38-31 win against Japan last weekend.
Following that match, Chris Farrell and Jordan Larmour are ruled out through injury while the magnificent Peter O’Mahony is rested.
Four uncapped players in the starting line-up in prop Tom O’Toole, flanker Nick Timoney, centre James Hume and winger Robert Baloucoune, and another quartet of international rookies can be found on the bench.
USA coach Gary Gold has also made four changes – one positional – with hooker Joe Taufete’e, flanker Hanco Germishuys – a real handful – and winger Christian Dyer coming in with Mike Te’o moving to full-back in place of the unavailable Marcel Brache. That’s a blow because Brache was a revelation in defence and attack at Twickenham.
History says that Ireland will easily cover the 27 points in the handicap but the resilience shown by the Eagles in turning things around against England does make you wonder.
Ireland’s next generation has been given an opportunity to put their hand up for selection going forward, and we expect lock Ryan Baird to back up the hype and deliver a towering performance.
