Saturday’s selections:
3pts: Tonga v Samoa – total points over 40.5 (10/11, Bet 365, Paddy Power)
2pts: Argentina win – (11/10 Skybet, William Hill)
1pt: France +5 (10/11, general)
1pt: France to score first try, lead at half-time and win (5/1, Paddy Power)
1pt: New Zealand -37 on the handicap (Skybet, 4/6)
Wales v France, kick-off 1pm in Cardiff
Consistency in selection could be key in Cardiff
Last week we identified what great value Argentina were at 12/5 to beat Wales, and they very nearly delivered, despite playing over an hour with 14 men following Juan Cruz Mallia’s dismissal.
The full-back is suspended for the return match and is replaced by Santiago Carreras. Los Pumas bring in one other new face in Bautista Delguy with the two other changes both positional.
While Mario Ledesma has only tinkered with the team that heroically drew 20-all with Wales seven days ago, his opposite number, Wayne Pivac has changed virtually half of his starting XV.
Premiership champions Harlequins showed the value of consistency of selection in achieving success and Los Pumas have this and Wales don’t. For them, this match is just as important from a player point of view as it is about getting the win.
A callow Wales will heavily rely on a few key figures in guiding them through 80 minutes. Jonathan Davies (90 Tests) accounts for more than half of the 162 caps in the backs, while Ross Moriarty (47) and Elliot Dee (39) boast more than half the 138 caps in the forwards.
Argentina’s last victory against Wales was 26-12 in November 2012 and they have never had a better chance of ending that barren, nine-year run.
For the record, the odds on them drawing a fourth match in six outings are 22/1.
Australia v France, kick-off 11am in Brisbane
Les Bleus can be wizards of Oz
Australia’s series with France always threatened to be close and so it is proving, with one win apiece, both by slender two-point margins.
This will be the 50th test between the two nations and the Wallabies are five-point favourites.
As five of their last six meetings have ended with six points or less between the teams, the stats point to a France handicap win.
Antoine Hastoy will make his Test debut at fly-half in place of Louis Carbonel and that may make some punters understandably cautious about backing Les Bleus at +5. However, what the last year has taught us is not to underestimate the strength in depth in France right now, especially at fly-half.
Hastoy was Pau’s kingpin at 10 last season and scored 280 Top 14 points, so he is more than capable of stepping into the breach.
In addition to Carbonel, Gabin Villiere and Jonathan Danty are also out through injury, but in winger Teddy Thomas and centre Pierre-Louis Barassi France have called in two quality performers.
Thomas hasn’t scored a try in his last four Tests and will be itching to put that right in his first outing of the summer, although tries are likely to be at a premium with both defences having looked pretty solid so far.
The Wallabies haven’t scored more than two tries in a Test since they defeated Georgia 27-8 at Rugby World Cup 2019.
For those looking for bigger odds than the 10/11 about France on the handicap, a modest investment in France to score the first try, lead at half-time and win (5/1, Paddy Power) could be worthwhile.
New Zealand v Fiji, kick-off 8.05am in Hamilton
Fiji to be a rollover
Fiji played reallty well and came up trumps as a +45 pick against New Zealand in Auckland last week, but they still lost by 34 points. So, by our reckoning, a strong All Blacks team should be able to cover 37 points in the Hamilton rematch, especially with in-form centre and captain Lepani Botia out with a knee injury.
Last weekend the damage was done in the final half an hour when Dane Coles came off the bench to score a historic four-timer. Up until then, Fiji were right in the fight.
Coles is not around to cause mayhem this time around, but the rolling maul that proved so profitable for them in the closing stages will no doubt be wheeled out again, but a lot sooner, as the All Blacks look to stifle Fiji from the off.
40-something … and the rest!
Tonga v Samoa, kick-off 5.30am
Also in New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa face each other in the second leg of their Oceania 1 Rugby World Cup 2023 play-off.
Samoa’s place in the tournament is all but secure following a 42-13 in Auckland last week and with Tonga needing to chase the game to overhaul the 29-point deficit, gaps will open up
For that reason, we’re advocating going over in the total points market set at 40.5, despite the forecast of wet and windy weather.
