Matches between Wales and South Africa are normally tense, tight affairs where brawn overcomes beauty, and there is no reason to suggest that this Saturday’s clash at the Principality Stadium will be anything other than an arm wrestle.
Only three points separated the sides when they met in the semi-finals of the last Rugby World Cup but that was pretty much at a time when Warren Gatland’s golden generation had peaked.
The majority of their main men from that clash are either injured (Alun Wyn Jones), coming back from injury (Liam Williams), suspect to injury (Dan Biggar) or below-par in terms of form (Jon Davies).
Contrast this to the Springboks, who come with a gun team full of confidence and refreshed from their 31-29 win over the All Blacks a month ago.
South Africa can cover the 9-points on the handicap and could even push the margin out to 16 which would be enough for them to overtake New Zealand at the top of the world rankings.
Defensively the Springboks have been excellent as you would expect under head coach Jacques Nienaber, who was responsible for this area during the World Cup winning campaig. But, recently, there has been a bit of a trade-off with the attack and they have conceded more points as well as scoring more themselves compared to earlier in the year.
We dont expect Wales to score more than three tries against the Springboks for the first time in history but they should get a couple with the opposition attack good enough to get four or five, which encourages us to go over 42.5 in the Total Match Points market even in a game that is traditionally low-scoring.
Elsewhere, Italy start life under Kieran Crowley with a game against the country of his birth, New Zealand.
Italy haven’t won in Rome since 2013 and have taken some frightful hammerings in that time, and to less equipped teams than the All Blacks.
New Zealand are scoring tries for fun – they are only four short of setting a new record for tries in a calendar year – and can overcome a handicap of 65.5 points (15/8, Paddy Power), even with an entirely new starting XV to the one that won 54-16 in Cardiff last weekend.
