Gallagher Premiership 2019/20 - Round 15 Archive

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SALE SHARKS

Friday 21st August 

18:00 

PREDICTION – sale by 4

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EXETER CHIEFS

A clash that certainly won’t lack physicality could be short on points with conditions likely to be unfavourable for attacking rugby.

A strong wind is forecast to be blowing across an AJ Bell Stadium more eerily quiet than usual, and with both sides priding themselves on defence, the outcome of this match is likely to be decided by the odd moment of inspiration or the boots of Rob du Preez and Joe Simmonds.

Our recommendation is to take the 10/11 on offer for total match points under 45.5.

Sharks boss Steve Diamond has wield out his big guns again as they look to do the double on the Chiefs, having won down at Sandy Park 22-19 at the end of January. South African World Cup winners Faf de Klerk and Lood de Jager retain their spots alongside such talents as England trio Tom Curry Manu Tuilagi and Marland Yarde.  

For Chiefs, this is the first of two tough away-day assignments as they head to Bristol in Round 16 on Tuesday. However, DoR Rob Baxter hasn’t tinkered with his line-up too much, and the all-England front-row of Ben Moon, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Harry Williams will look to lay the platform for a second win since the restart.

Scrums could play a bit part in the outcome and with so many resets in this facet of the game in Round 14, ball in play time – and therefore scoring opportunities – could be limited.

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GLOUCESTER RUGBY

Friday 21st August 

19:45 

PREDICTION -BRISTOL BY 5

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BRISTOL BEARS

Predictions for this one could live and die on Gloucester’s gamble to field the Premiership’s top try-scorer, Louis Rees-Zammit, at full-back rather than his customary position on the wing.

Rees-Zammit forms part of an electric back-three with Jonny May and Ollie Thorley but it is his ability to deal with the high ball in defence that will be examined by Bristol’s fly-half Callum Sheedy.

The teenager has stood up to every test in his fledgling career so far and George Skivington is clearly confident getting him in the side at 15, not 11, is a risk worth taking.

Gloucester do not lack for experience elsewhere, with Ed Slater and Matt Garvey locking down together and Joe Simpson and Danny Cipriani pulling the strings at half-back.

Bristol hand first starts to England duo, Ben Earl and Kyle Sinckler, and are clearly going to Kingsholm with the aim of extending their record winning run in the Premiership to seven matches.

The Bears have held the upper hand in the last four meetings, all at Ashton Gate, but their last victory at Kingsholm was in March 2006, six defeats ago.

Pat Lam’s side played brilliant wet weather rugby in defeating Saracens 16-12 last week and game-management will again by key to the outcome.

In Sinckler, Harry Thacker, Ben Earl and Nathan Hughes, the Bears arguably have more dynamic ball carriers, and that’s not mentioning Semi Radradra, who barely got a look-in on debut last week.

With those players in their ranks, Bristol should win the battle of the gain-line and sneak this one by more than the point they are giving away on the handicap, at 10/11.

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WASPS

Friday 21st August 

19:45 

PREDICTION – WASPS BY 30

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

Worcester, last week’s picks to beat Gloucester, were looking good at 5-0 up in the 18th minute and then, all of a sudden, all bets were off as Melani Nanai’s red card turned it into an afternoon to forget for the Warriors as they shipped 44 points in losing heavily at home to Gloucester.

It would be easy for the bookies to overreact and give them a big handicap for their trip to Wasps, especially with Lee Blackett’s men in such scintillating form, but I don’t think the 16-point advantage they’re offering up is enough.

Warriors have opted to change their entire starting XV and while the quality of their youngsters is not to be underestimated given their pedigree in bringing through the likes of Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence in recent years, it is hard to see them pushing Wasps – even within two scores.

The presence in the Wasps team of Ryan Mills, their most-prized asset until his switch to the Ricoh, will add further grist to the Warriors mill.

Tom Willis was one of the standout players in Round 14 and is ready to hand out another breakdown lesson in what could be a chastening afternoon for the Warriors’ academy boys.

Wasps -16 on the handicap, at 10/11

 

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SARACENS

Saturday 22nd August 

12:30 

Harlequins by 8

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HARLEQUINS

Sarries made a mockery of suggestions at Bristol last week that a lack of motivation would result in them rolling over in the remaining rounds of the season now that their relegation to the Championship has been confirmed.

They lost 16-12 but they went down fighting and could easily have come away with the points had their claims for a penalty try been granted near the end.

A visit from Quins is always one Sarries get up for whatever the situation but it is difficult to see them maintaining their proud home record this weekend.

Sarries have lost just once at Allianz Park in the Premiership in two-and-a-half years and Quins haven’t won in Barnet in all competitions in nearly three years. However, Paul Gustard’s men did inflict a 41-14 on them in Round 9.

Owen Farrell makes his 200th appearance for Sarries but Quins, who were impressive in defeating Sale last week, look far stronger on paper.

Gustard has kept the Martin Landajo-Marcus Smith half-back axis intact and they were so instrumental in outmanoeuvring the Sharks and look really in the groove.

Joe Marler, Chris Robshaw and Mike Brown bring with them over 800 appearances worth of experience, and it may be asking a lot of Sarries, even with Farrell and club stalwart Brad Barritt involved, to bounce back from their narrow loss to Bristol.

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LONDON IRISH

Saturday 22nd August 

14:00 

PREDICTION – SAINTS BY 4

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NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

This has the look of a fixture to make punters more nervous than George Furbank under the high ball on his England debut. 

Irish have dangerous finishers in Ollie Hassell-Collins and Ben Loader but will they win enough quality ball at the Twickenham Stoop, their temporary home, to cause Saints more pain afetr their loss to Wasps last weekend?

Saints hardly fired a shot in that match and can’t possibly be as bad again in their one-on-one defence otherwise the aforementioned wingers will have a field day.

Irish did win at Franklin’s Gardens back in January and Saints may struggle to overcome the six-point handicap handed to them so a straight win on Chris Boyd’s side would be our tentative recommendation.

 

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LEICESTER TIGERS

Saturday 22nd August 

16:30 

PREDICTION – BATH BY 12

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BATH RUGBY

Bath go to Leicester missing talisman Zach Mercer from their back-row. Ordinarily this would be seen as a blow as the West Country side are undeniably weaker without his presence no matter how good a talent Tom Ellis is. However, punters shouldn’t be fooled into thinking they are hard to back without him.

We’ve taken a look at results over the past two seasons and Bath have won seven out of their 10 games (70%) when the marauding Mercer has been absent and only 11 out of 25 when he’s been in the side (44%).

Other than Mercer, Bath are near as damn it at full strength with the likes of Anthony Watson, Semesa Rokoduguni, Jonathan Joseph and Taulupe Falatau given another run out.

Leicester on the other hand have opted to field a side that looks more suitable for a Premiership Shield fixture. DoR steve Borthwick has made 13 changes and few Tigers fans would claim the selection has improved their chances of victory given the amount of academy graduates in the team.

Bath were -2 on the handicap but the bookies increased that to -10 once the teams were announced. If Bath don’t win this one comfortably, we’ll eat Zach Mercer’s scrum cap.

Bath to win won both halves at Evens may be the best to have here.

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