Gallagher Premiership 2019/20 - Round 16 Archive

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WASPS

Tuesday 25th August 

17:30 

PREDICTION – WASPS BY 14

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SALE SHARKS

It was Sale Sharks who were supposed to be laying down a challenge to Exeter Chiefs, but they’ve looked anything but title contenders since the restart with disappointing performances against Harlequins and Exeter going down as well as a Liverpool fan parading the Premier League trophy in Manchester.

Wasps, on the other hand, have the momentum and appear to be timing their run to the play-offs to perfection, as they always seemed to do in the Warren Gatland/Shaun Edwards era.

Lee Blackett’s side have won their last five Gallagher Premiership Rugby (all with a try bonus point) and have leapfrogged the Sharks in the table.

The Sharks have won their last three encounters with Wasps in all competitions and having been let down by them twice in the space of a week, it’s sod law they’ll continue that run just as we back against them.

However, with all but one of the side who dismantled Northampton so impressively selected for this clash, it is hard to look beyond a Wasps win that covers the handicap of -12, at 10/11.

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BRISTOL BEARS

Tuesday 25th August 

19:45 

PREDICTION – BRISTOL BY 12

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EXETER CHIEFS

Just think it is 10 years ago that Bristol and Exeter last met as the top two sides … in the Championship. Now, as things stand, they are the cream of English rugby’s elite.

With the Chiefs close to securing a home semi-final with 10 points taken from 10 since the restart to sit eight points clear at the summit of the Gallagher Premiership, DoR Rob Baxter appears ready to take a hit in this midweek fixture.

Having stuck largely with an unchanged starting XV for their bonus point victories against Leicester Tigers and Sale Sharks, only winger Olly Woodburn remains in place from those two games for tomorrow’s short trip up the M5.

The onus is on Bristol to get the win given they go into this round of midweek fixtures only four points ahead of Wasps in third.

Bristol have reported no major injury concerns and the strength in depth of the squad is evident in the recall of Luke Morahan, a contender for the Premiership’s top try-scorer award, and superstar Charles Piutau.

Semi Radradra starts for the third match in succession, having made an incredible 147 metres against Gloucester in Round 15, and Nathan Hughes gets the chance to rumble again from No.8.

You probably have to go back a long way to find the last time Exeter were 7/2 in a two-horse race, but Bristol look too strong to slip up and we’d advise taking the 1/4 on offer for a home win.

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LEICESTER TIGERS

Wednesday 26th August 

18:00 

PREDICTION – TIGERS BY 12

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LONDON IRISH

Home advantage may have been reduced by the absence of fans since the Premiership’s restart – by as much as 19%, according to our research  – but it is hard to see beyond a first win for Tigers under new head coach Steve Borthwick.

Tigers reunite their front-row trinity of Ellis Genge, club captain Tom Youngs and Dan Cole after the home defeat by Bath, while Nemani Nadolo will make his long-awaited debut at centre in a reinforced backline.

If Nadolo can replicate the form that Semi Radradra showed in Bristol’s dismantling of Gloucester in Round 15, Tigers fans should be smiling.

Irish have already won three times on the road this season and beat Tigers comfortably, 36-11 at the Madejski Stadium back in November so this fixture holds no fears for them, especially to a side so young.

Captain Blair Cowan is the only survivor from the team that last won at Welford Road in September 2014 for only the second time in history.

Shane Geraghty kicked 15 points in the 22-19 win that day and it will take another big performance from a fly-half with Irish ancestry, Paddy Jackson, for Irish to defy the odds.

A handicap of -12 against Tigers looks just about spot on so with that in mind, the +6 awarded to Irish in the first half could be the bet to have.

Incredibly, Tigers have not managed to get into double figures on the socreboard before half-time in any of their last eight matches.

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SARACENS

Wednesday 26th August 

18:00 

PREDICTION – SARRIES BY 8

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GLOUCESTER RUGBY

Mark Atkinson captains Gloucester as they look to bounce back from their defeat to Bristol in Round 15, but it could be another player to graduate from the Championship who catches the eye tonight.

What better way for Jordy Reid to test his Premiership credentials than facing European and domestic double champions Saracens away on your debut?

Reid (18/1 to be first try scorer) is a wrecking ball of a back-rower and came to Gloucester on the back of consecutive appearances in the Championship Dream XV whilst at Ealing.

The dreadlocked Australian has played Super Rugby with the Rebels and it’s a wonder why he hasn’t had his chance amongst English elite’s until now.

Unfortunately, it looks like his time in the Premiership will begin on a losing note as Saracens are showing no signs of easing up now that their relegation to the Championship is confirmed.

Any suspicions that they might give up the ghost following their narrow defeat at Bristol were dispelled in the way they clinically send Quins packing last weekend.

Any pack with Calum Clark and Richard Barrington in it is not to be messed with, while Manu Vunipola is a more than capable replacement for Owen Farrell at 10.

The midfield and back-three combinations are very inexperienced in terms of Saracens appearances together, so it may time a while for them to get firing, but Sarries should preserve their 12-year unbeaten home record against the Cherry & Whites, and by more than the 4-point handicap.

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

Wednesday 26th August 

18:00 

PREDICTION – WARRIORS BY 5

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HARLEQUINS

With an inexperienced ref in charge in Jack Makepeace, whoever manages the man in the middle best tonight may get the rub of the decisions which, under the current application of the breakdown laws, is crucial to the outcome.

While Quins openside Will Evans is definitely one to watch (Tigers are still scratching their heads as to why they let him go), the Londoners are not good travellers and Worcester are well overdue a win having lost their last eight matches.

Focusing on the breakdown, and the respective back-rows, the Warriors have a clear edge in terms of experience which, if you pardon the pun, could see them make peace with the match official who blows the whistle for only the third time in English rugby’s top flight.

Captain Ted Hill continues to impress at blindside and will have no doubt been fired up by Ben Curry’s outstanding display for Sale Sharks on Tuesday night, while there are still few better opensides than Matt Kvesic. Cornell du Preez makes up the back-row triumvirate at No.8.

Warriors won 19-14 at the Twickenham Stoop in Round 4 and a similarly close margin of victory is our prediction tonight. The 5-1 about a Warriors victory by 1-5 points looks decent value.

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NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

Wednesday 26th August 

19:45

PREDICTION – SAINTS BY 5

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BATH RUGBY

Half their squad may be what’s termed ‘home-grown’ but Bath’s chances of success against Northampton on Wednesday evening are much less than 50:50, according to the bookies, who rate the West Country club’s chances of success at 100/30.

For all the experimentation though, some impressive names are still included in their line-up and the layers may have just over-reacted to Stuart Hooper’s desire to test the strength in depth of his squad.

Giving Bath an eight-point start when they have talents like Semesa Rokoduguni and Zach Mercer on display, especially against a team that is prone to missing one-on-one tackles, could be a tad on the generous side.

Saints have the worst tackle success rate (83.5%) of any Premiership team and they really struggled against Wasps in Round 14, slipping off a dozen tackles out of just 69 overall.

There was an improvement in last weekend’s 27-3 win at London Irish but, even so, Bath will see this as an area they can exploit.

While Bath have a dismal record at the Gardens (they have only won once there in the league in the last two decades), Saints aren’t exactly comfortable in their own parish having lost four on the spin there.

As for the team news, Dan Biggar is back to lead an impressive-looking back line, while Nic Auterac has double the reason to be motivated as his club debut comes against one of his former clubs.

Meanwhile, the Matavesi brothers could go head-to-head as Josh lines up at 10 for Bath, and Sam is the Saints’ replacement hooker.

With Saints conceding 28 of their 42 tries after the half-time break, the bet to be had here might be Saints to win the first half and Bath to stage a late rally and win the second.