Gallagher Premiership 2019/20 - Round 20 Archive

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WASPS

Sunday 13th September 

12:30 

PREDICTION – WASPS BY 20

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BRISTOL BEARS

With Wasps’ place in the top-four anything but secure, head coach Lee Blackett has fielded what looks to be his strongest side for the visit of their nearest rivals in the table.

Joe Launchbury will captain the side from the second row in his 150th club appearance, and the England lock will be determined to mark his milestone match with a win.

Bristol Bears ran an out-of-sorts Northampton team ragged in winning 47-10 at Ashton Gate in midweek, and with this likely to be another very open game, points are unlikely to be at a premium. 

While Wasps have gone with the big guns, the Bears have chosen to give a lot of their fringe players an opportunity to shine for the trip to Coventry. Maybe Pat Lam’s thinking was that the two remaining games of the season after this one – against Leicester and London Irish – are much more winnable.

Wasps have won the last eight league meetings and there’s no reason to bet against that continuing on Sunday.

 

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LEICESTER TIGERS

Sunday 13th September

14:00 

PREDICTION – SAINTS BY 4

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NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

With no crowd and neither side in any sort of form, this could be the tamest East Midlands derby in living memory.

Tigers were left licking their wounds after suffering their heaviest-ever Premiership defeat away to Wasps in midweek, while Saints were torn apart by the Bears.

Leicester appeared to hurt the more of the two in the aftermath, and in a game where motivation will be key, the chance to put right some wrongs could potentially sway it their way.

In captain Tom Youngs and brother Ben, who makes his 250th Tigers appearance, they have two individuals who know exactly what winning this fixture means, and in Tomás Lavanini and Calum Green, they possess two no-nonsense characters in the engine room.

They should also be able to hurt Saints out wide with the inclusion of debutant Kini Murimurivalu and fellow Fijian Nemani Nadolo on the wings.

However, Saints have also given this long-standing fixture due respect with their team selection featuring most of their well-known names, including Dan Biggar at fly-half. While Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam and Teimana Harrison will be up for the fight in the back row.

Looking at the two line-ups, you’d make Saints marginal favourites for this one.

 

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LONDON IRISH

Sunday 13th September

15:00 

PREDICTION – WORC BY 6

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

London Irish v Worcester Warriors – the type of dull, dead rubber that might blight the Premiership if ever ring-fencing comes in.

But while certainly not the most attractive game on paper, it could be a bonanza for rugby betting opportunities.

With the teams put out, it’s anyone’s guess – including the bookies – who is going to win.

But it’s easier to see Warriors picking up the points given the inclusion of experienced, in-form players like Duncan Weir and his half-back partner Francois Hougaard, while in captain Ted Hall and Matt Kvesic they have two international-class flankers.

Irish might have to pin their hopes on another kicking masterclass from fly-half Paddy Jackson, the Ulsterman having slotted his last 13 consecutive kicks at goal.

A win for Worcester would lift them above Irish in the table.

 

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SALE SHARKS

Sunday 13th September

15:00 

PREDICTION – SHARKS BY 8

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BATH RUGBY

Sunday’s clash at the AJ Bell Stadium should buck the recent trend of tight, turgid encounters between the sides.

Only six points have separated the Sharks and Bath in their last four meetings, with only five tries scored in the last three.

However, post-lockdown teams are playing with a freedom of expression not seen before and with a ‘gun’ Sharks team out on the paddock, on what is forecast to be a dry day, the home side should manage to put a bit of distance between themselves and their top-four rivals.

Bath have enjoyed a good platform upfront in their return games to date but this muscled-up Sharks team won’t be bullied off the park and Bath will have to find another way to crack a nut rather than just revert to the sledgehammer.

They are showing signs they are capable of doing that but possibly not today in Manchester as they are coming up against a team that normally doesn’t give an inch to the opposition.

 

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SARACENS

Sunday 13th September

16:30 

PREDICTION – SARRIES BY 12

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EXETER CHIEFS

Exeter have won with their first team, their second team but their third team? Surely not. 

With next week’s Heineken Champions Cup quarter-final in mind, both DoRs have rested their frontline troops but Chiefs’ Rob Baxter has taken rotation to another level.

Baxter has given youth its chance but the Chiefs of the future will still get good direction from captain for the day Don Armand and long-standing full-back, Phil Dollman, one of the ‘originals’, who helped the club up into the Premiership 10 years ago.

Saracens’ line-up is also unrecognisable from the one that took them to double glory last season, but their XV just edges it in terms of Premiership experience when compared to Exeter’s. Incredibly, half-back pairing, Tom Whiteley and Manu Vunipola already have 72 Premiership appearances between them. 

Joel Kpoku, Callum Hunter-Hill and Calum Clark form the spine of the pack, while Janco Venter makes his first Premiership start after joining from Jersey.

Rotimi Segun scored his 12th and 13th tries of the season in the midweek loss to Sale Sharks and is 9/1 to score the first try.

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GLOUCESTER RUGBY

Monday 14th September

19:45

PREDICTION – GLOS BY 8

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HARLEQUINS

Kingsholm doesn’t hold any particular fears for Quins – with a 1,000 fans in or not – as they have won on two of their last three visits there.

Paul Gustard’s side are a best-priced 15/8 to win, which appears to be where the values lies because, with the team they have put out – Danny Care, Marcus Smith and Mike Brown are included in the backs and the likes of Alex Dombrandt and James Chisholm are in the forwards – they cannot be written off entirely.

Quins are one point and two places better off than Gloucester in the table and will need to contain Gloucester’s prolific back-three of Ollie Thorley, Jonny May and Louis Rees-Zammit if they are to turn that value into readies.

Thorley and Rees-Zammit are vying to be the league’s top try-scorer, and with Cipriani lining up at 10 they are going to see plenty of ball.

At the risk of hedging our bets, we’re going to recommend taking the safer option of a Gloucester win by 1-10 points (5/2) in the alternative winning margin market.

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