Leicester fans might not know it but Wayne Barnes’ appointment for Friday night’s visit of London Irish is good news if recent history is anything to go by.
Barnes, who is closing on a century of Tests as a referee, has stood in the middle for five Premiership matches this season, and the home side has won them all.
Four of the five were by a margin of seven points or less – including Leicester’s 36-31 win over Bath – with the only anomaly being the 48-3 blow-out Bristol enjoyed at Bath’s expense.
In a fixture when the home side tends to come out on top more often than not, this further reinforces the belief that the Tigers will just have enough in their locker to edge a tight contest.
At the halfway point of the campaign, both sides have managed 21 tries at an average of just under two per game so a low-scoring affair looks in prospect.
The previous two meetings at Welford Road certainly ended up that way with Tigers winning 13-7 last August and 19-15 back in January 2018.
Throw in the fact that Irish have only won once at the ground since 2003, and history and the stats are very much against them building on last week’s terrific win at Wasps.
Irish’s problem this season has been giving the opposition a head start. Of the 22 tries they have conceded, 13 have come before half-time. And the points conceded total before and after half-time is split 113/73. The percentage of points conceded by Irish before the break is only equalled by Sale Sharks, the rest tend to prosper in the second half.
Factor in Leicester’s fondness for kicking first-half penalties – 15 out of 23 during the first 40 – and it’s easy to see how Irish will have to launch another second-half comeback if they are to get anything out of this game.
With a new settled backline, marshalled by the experienced half-back pairing of Nick Phipps and Paddy Jackson, they are clearly starting to function better as an attacking unit.
But even with a host of players still unavailable through England commitments, injuries and suspension, we believe the Tigers can just about hold on for a hard-earned victory.
Steve Borthwick’s side are defensively dogged and Freddie Steward’s return at full-back can only improve them. To only concede three points when it was 15 v 15 against ruthless Bristol last week takes some doing.
Tigers’ tally of eight yellow cards is the second-highest in the league but even if they add to that tally tonight, the Exiles don’t tend to punish teams when they have more men on the pitch.
Recommended bet: Double result of Leicester-Leicester (13/10, Paddy Power).
Leicester: 15. Freddie Steward, 14. Kobus Van Wyk, 13. Matías Moroni, 12. Matt Scott, 11. Guy Porter, 10. Zack Henry, 9. Richard Wigglesworth, 1. Luan de Bruin, 2. Tom Youngs, 3. Dan Cole, 4. Calum Green, 5. Tomás Lavanini, 6. Harry Wells, 7. Tommy Reffell, 8. Cyle Brink.
Replacements: 16. Charlie Clare, 17. Nephi Leatigaga, 18. Joe Heyes, 19. Ollie Chessum, 20. Luke Wallace, 21. Jack Van Poortvliet, 22. Johnny McPhillips, 23. Kini Murimurivalu.
London Irish: 15. Tom Parton, 14. Ben Loader, 13. Curtis Rona, 12. Terrence Hepetema, 11. Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Nick Phipps, 1. Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2. Agustin Creevy, 3. Lovejoy Chawatama, 4. Steve Mafi, 5. Rob Simmons, 6. Matt Rogerson ©, 7. Blair Cowan, 8. Albert Tuisue.
Replacements: 16. Matt Cornish, 17. Allan Dell, 18. Ollie Hoskins, 19. Chunya Munga, 20. George Nott, 21. Ben Donnell, 22. Ben Meehan, 23. Will Joseph.
