Gallagher Premiership 2020/21 - Round 20 Archive

The Rugby Tipster keeps you up-to-date with the latest on each round of matches in the Gallagher Premiership. Our in-depth knowledge of form and team selection can guide your rugby betting selections and get you the best rugby odds.

GLOUCESTER RUGBY

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Friday May 28th

19:45

PREDICTION – GLOS BY 12

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LONDON IRISH

The Cherry & Whites are a team on the way up, whilst the Exiles have the look of a side that can’t wait for the season’s end to come quickly enough.

Declan Kidney’s men have lost their last four and are not normally the best of travellers. With Kingsholm having a crowd in, albeit limited in numbers, their job just got a whole lot tougher.

After months of pent-up frustration, the Shed faithful will no doubt be at their most raucous and Louis Rees-Zammit et al should give them plenty to shout about in what has the makings of a high-scoring game.

Three of the last four games between the sides have gone over the total match points line of 54.5.

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SALE SHARKS

Friday May 28th 

19:45

PREDICTION – BRISTOL BY 5

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BRISTOL BEARS

Two heavyweight teams of very different styles come together at the AJ Bell Stadium in what is a very difficult game to call.

Had Bristol opted to rest some of their frontline players with a home semi-final all but guaranteed, then we’d have erred towards a home win.

However, the Bears travel to the north west with a matchday squad, that other than the enforced absence of Steven Luatua and Harry Randall, is virtually at full strength.

Bristol boss Pat Lam has also spoken at length about how, having led the Premiership from round 6 onwards, they are not in the mood to be overtaken.

The Bears are highly motivated, and so are Sale. 

The Sharks are third on the back of a run of four games unbeaten and still have a realistic chance of catching Exeter above them and securing that coveted home tie in the play-offs. There are just four points between them and the Chiefs, who they meet in the final round,  with leaders Bristol a further eight points better off.

Whistle watch

Games between two quality teams like this often come down to the bounce of the ball or a refereeing decision.

Christophe Ridley is the man in the middle for this one and he was referee when Sale somehow managed to overcome the loss of four men to the sin-bin to win at Wasps a couple of months ago.

In three-quarters of the Premiership matches he has refereed this season Ridley has given out at least one yellow card.

Sale have conceded an incredible 21 yellow cards this season but their strong sense of togetherness has, more often than not, seen them overcome adversity and pull through.

The Sharks may have one of the best records for keeping things tight when they are short handed in defence – conceding, on average, 3.3 points during such periods.

Bristol, however, are the best opponents at exploiting the extra space on the field and score an average of seven points when they are numerically up a man.

The likelihood is that if Sale’s disciplinary problems continue into this match, they will get badly punished.

Sale:  15. Luke James, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Sam James, 12. Connor Doherty, 11. Marland Yarde, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Faf de Klerk; 1. Bevan Rodd, 2. Akker van der Merwe, 3. Coenie Oosthuizen, 4. Cobus Wiese, 5. Jean-Luc du Preez, 6. Ben Curry, 7. Tom Curry, (Capt.) 8. Daniel du Preez.

Replacements: 16. Curtis Langdon 17. Valery Morozov, 18. James Harper, 19. James Phillips, 20. Cameron Neild, 21. Raffi Quirke, 22. Robert du Preez, 23. Manu Tuilagi

Bristol Bears: 15. Charles Piutau; 14. Luke Morahan, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Piers O’Conor, 11. Max Malins; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Andy Uren; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Jake Kerr, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Chris Vui (c), 6. Fitz Harding, 7. Ben Earl, 8. Nathan Hughes.

Replacements: 16. Harry Thacker, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 19. Ed Holmes, 20. Jake Heenan, 21. Tom Kessell, 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Siale Piutau.

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HARLEQUINS

Saturday May 29th

14:00

PREDICTION – QUINS BY 16

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BATH RUGBY

Quins have suffered five defeats in their last 10 games but closer inspection of those losses reveals all came – bar the 50-point second-string blow-out against Ulster – were by six points or fewer.

The defeats to Newcastle, Exeter, Bristol and Leicester all came against extremely physical sides, and whilst Bath like to play the power game, they’re still struggling to consistently impose themselves on the opposition.

Whilst Bath continue to chop and change in an attempt to find the elusive winning combination, Quins have the benefit of a settled team with the same starting XV that came up just short away to Tigers. The only changes to the matchday 23 come on the bench with Archie White and Aaron Morris getting a chance to put their hands up for the play-offs.

Quins aren’t guaranteed a top-four spot just yet but with an 11-point gap between themselves and Northampton in fifth, a win at the Twickenham Stoop would do it.

Bath go into the match just outside of the top eight and face the prospect of missing out on Heineken Champions Cup rugby, which would have been unthinkable at the start of the season.

Bath really shouldn’t be in the position they are in with the squad they have, but if anything they are going backwards and it is hard to see them snapping a four-game losing run here.

Harlequins: 15. Tyrone Green, 14. Nathan Earle, 13. Luke Northmore, 12. James Lang, 11. Joe Marchant, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Danny Care; 1. Joe Marler, 2. Scott Baldwin, 3. Wilco Louw, 4. Matt Symons, 5. Stephan Lewies (C), 6. Tom Lawday, 7. Jack Kenningham, 8. Alex Dombrandt

Replacements: 16. Joe Gray, 17. Santiago Garcia Botta, 18. Will Collier, 19. Dino Lamb, 20. Archie White, 21. Martin Landajo, 22. Ben Tapuai, 23. Aaron Morris

Bath: 15. Tom de Glanville, 14. Joe Cokanasiga, 13. Max Clark, 12. Max Ojomoh, 11. Will Muir, 10. Rhys Priestland, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Jamie Bhatti, 2. Jacques du Toit, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Josh McNally, 5. Charlie Ewels ©, 6. Miles Reid, 7. Sam Underhill, 8. Taulupe Faletau

Replacements: 16. Tom Doughty, 17. Juan Schoeman 18. Henry Thomas, 19. Will Spencer, 20. Josh Bayliss, 21. Will Chudley, 22. Orlando Bailey, 23. Jonathan Joseph

 

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

Saturday May 29th

15:00

PREDICTION – TIGERS BY 8

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LEICESTER TIGERS

With Heineken Champions Cup rugby for next season still not guaranteed and no relegation this season, sixth-place Leicester have the much bigger incentive to do well than the league’s cellar dwellers.

Warriors can hurt teams, there’s no doubt that, but winning is alien to them and Tigers are not the sort of team to rest on their laurels and go at their opponents with anything less than 100 per cent.

Worcester are without a win in any competition since they squeaked home against London Irish back in November, but they have never failed to get into double figures in that time.

Tigers have conceded an average of three tries per game over the last block of six matches and Worcester have managed to score an average of 2.66 tries in that same timeframe so it points to points being scored.

Steve Borthwick will be looking to see a response from his side after the diaappointment of losing the European Challenge Cup final to Montpellier and we expect them to bounce back with a win in a game where defence could be optional. 

Over 53.5 points (5/6) is our recommended bet.

Worcester Warriors: 15 Jamie Shillcock, 14 Perry Humphreys, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Harri Doel, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Matt Kvesic, 7 Sam Lewis, 6 Ted Hill (c), 5 Justin Clegg, 4 Andrew Kitchener, 3 Jay Tyack, 2 Niall Annett, 1 Marc Thomas

Replacements: 16 Isaac Miller, 17 Callum Black, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Joe Batley, 20 Kyle Hatherell, 21 Gareth Simpson, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Noah Heward

Leicester: 15 Zack Henry, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Matt Scott, 12 Dan Kelly, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Johnny McPhillips, 9 Ben Youngs (c), 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Hanro Liebenberg, 5 Cameron Henderson, 4 Harry Wells, 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Charlie Clare, 1 Ellis Genge

Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Tomás Lavanini, 20 George Martin, 21 Jack Van Poortvliet, 22 Kini Murimurivalu, 23 Harry Potter

 

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NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

Saturday May 29th

16:30

PREDICTION – WASPS BY 4

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WASPS

It is a day of celebration for Northampton with captain Alex Waller becoming only the 24th player in the club’s history to reach a triple century of appearances, whilst Api Ratuniyarawa makes his 100th for the Saints.

Those two fine servants of the club deserve to mark the occasion with a win but we feel this is a fixture Wasps can be. Both sides can be sublime one match and disappointing the next, but the way Saints play really should suit the visitors.

Jacob Umaga’s confidence is sky-high right now and the future England prospect is more than capable of finding gaps in what has been a worryingly porous defence from a Saints point of view.

Wasps away form isn’t great – they have only won twice in six outings in all competitions since putting 50 points on Bath at The Rec in December – but not many teams do well at Leicester, Exeter, Bristol and Quins, and as we all know, the Quins defeat really should have been a win.

The Saints’ season is slipping away with consecutive defeats all but signalling an end to their play-off hopes, while wasps will be desperate for the points to cement their place in the top eight. They have more to play for and the ability to score enough points to support on the handicap at +6.

Wasps/Wasps is 16/5 in the half-time/full-time betting market.

Northampton Saints: 15 Tommy Freeman, 14 Ollie Sleightholme, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tom James; 1 Alex Waller (co-capt), 2 Sam Matavesi, 3 Paul Hill, 4 Dave Ribbans, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Lewis Ludlam (co-capt), 8 Tom Wood

Replacements: 16 Mikey Haywood, 17 Emmanuel Iyogun, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Alex Moon, 20 Alex Coles, 21 Connor Tupai, 22 Piers Francis, 23 Rory Hutchinson

Wasps: 15 Charlie Atkinson, 14 Zach Kibirige, 13 Paolo Odogwu, 12 Michael Le Bourgeois, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Tom West, 2 Gabriel Oghre, 3 Biyi Alo, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 James Gaskell, 6 Brad Shields (C), 7 Thomas Young, 8 Tom Willis

Replacements: 16 Tom Cruse, 17 Simon McIntyre, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 Tim Cardall, 20 Sione Vailanu, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Rob Miller

 

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EXETER CHIEFS

Sunday May 30th

13:30

PREDICTION – CHIEFS BY 32

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NEWCASTLE FALCONS

If Newcastle win at Exeter today it would not only surpass their achievement in beating Bath on the first day of the season, in the handicap stakes, but quite possibly rival the biggest handicap-busting result of the current Gallagher Premiership campaign. 

The Chiefs are -35 to win at Sandy Park, odds that reflect the positions of the teams in the league table (3rd and 11th, respectively) as well as the relative strengths of the two teams.

Dean Richards has opted to travel with a much-changed side and one that looks considerably weaker than the matchday 23s that have earned Newcastle back-to-back wins. Surprising really, when a top-eight spot is not beyond them.

Instead, it appears as though Newcastle have effectively conceded this result in order to bag five points against Worcester on the penultimate weekend before giving it everything they have got away to Quins in Round 22 when the Londoners might rest a few players of their own now that their place in the play-offs is assured.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are so well-stocked they have the luxury of fielding Scotland captain and Lions full-back Stuart Hogg on the bench.

Newcastle might be able to keep the score to respectable levels in the first half but the power of that Chiefs bench will surely tell in the end which is why we are going with second-half points to exceed 31.5 (Evens, Paddy Power).

Exeter Chiefs: 15 Facundo Cordero, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Tom O’Flaherty, 10 Joe Simmonds (c), 9 Jack Maunder, 8 Sam Simmonds, 7 Jacques Vermeulen, 6 Dave Ewers, 5 Sam Skinner, 4 Jannes Kirsten, 3 Harry Williams, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Alec Hepburn

Replacements: 16 Jack Yeandle, 17 Ben Moon, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Jonny Hill, 20 Sean Lonsdale, 21 Stu Townsend, 22 Harvey Skinner, 23 Stuart Hogg

Newcastle: 15 Joel Hodgson, 14 Alex Tait, 13 George Wacokecoke, 12 Pete Lucock, 11 Chidera Obonna, 10 Toby Flood (c), 9 Sam Stuart, 8 Carl Fearns, 7 John Hardie, 6 Gary Graham, 5 Rob Farrar, 4 Toby Salmon, 3 Rodney Ah You, 2 Robbie Smith, 1 Kyle Cooper

Replacements: 16 Charlie Maddison, 17 Sam Lockwood, 18 Mark Tampin, 19 Will Montgomery, 20 Tom Marshall, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Will Haydon-Wood, 23 Zach Kerr