Six Nations Preview: Top Try-Scorer
Yep, it’s the one you’ve all been waiting for. And after last year’s success in tipping Damien Penaud, hopefully, we can deliver for you again,
The Rugby Tipster keeps you up-to-date with the latest on each round of matches in the Gallagher Premiership. Our in-depth knowledge of form and team selection can guide your rugby betting selections and get you the best rugby odds.
GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Friday February 4th
19:45
PREDICTION – GLOS BY 5
LONDON IRISH
Two in-form sides that score their fair share of tries meet on what is forecast to be a dry, crisp evening for a match played on a firm artificial surface. All the ingredients are there for a running game of rugby and the bookies probably have it spot on in drawing the total match points line at 53.5 as the average is 54 points across the last five fixtures.
Where they may have been a bit generous is pricing up each team to score at least two tries in each half. Okay, eight-try matches are not exactly the norm but at 11/1 (Paddy Power), it might be worth a bit of a free shot because the shackles will be off. Irish will also benefit from the absence of Gloucester’s defensive lynchpin, Chris Harris.
Scotland star Harris is one of five international absentees for the Cherry & Whites, who are also a bit light in the pack now that Ed Slater has broken down again. Irish are a best-priced 21/10 to register their third away win in the league this season, and it is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.
Gloucester, however, are made of sterner stuff than they have been previously and should still have enough quality to win a tight but entertaining clash.
Recommended bet: 3 or more tries in each half (Evns, Paddy Power)
Gloucester Rugby: 15. Kyle Moyle, 14. Santiago Carreras, 13. Giorgi Kveseladze, 12. Billy Twelvetrees, 11. Ollie Thorley, 10. Lloyd Evans, 9. Charlie Chapman; 1. Val Rapava-Ruskin, 2. Jack Singleton, 3. Fraser Balmain, 4. Freddie Clarke, 5. Matias Alemanno, 6. Jack Clement, 7. Lewis Ludlow (c), 8. Ruan Ackermann
Replacements: 16. Santiago Socino, 17. Harry Elrington, 18. Jamal Ford-Robinson, 19. Andrew Davidson, 20. Alex Craig, 21. Ben Meehan, 22. Adam Hastings, 23. Tom Seabrook
London Irish: 15 James Stokes, 14 Kyle Rowe, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Benhard van Rensburg, 11 Ben Loader, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nick Phipps, 1 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2 Matt Cornish, 3 Ollie Hoskins, 4 Rob Simmons, 5 Adam Coleman, 6 Matt Rogerson (c), 7 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 8 Olly Cracknell.
Replacements: 16 Mike Willemse, 17 Facundo Gigena, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Chunya Munga, 20 Tom Pearson, 21 Hugh O’Sullivan, 22 Terrence Hepetema, 23 Cillian Redmond.
BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday February 5th
14:00
PREDICTION – BEARS BY 13
NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Newcastle name a decent starting XV but don’t look to have too much firepower in reserve. So while Bristol are down to their fourth-choice fly-half and have the likes of Kyle Sinckler and Harry Randall away on international duty, the Bears still look the stronger of the two outfits and should pull away after the Falcons stay in the fight in the first half. You only have to look at Bristol’s front-row replacements and the disparity in strength in depth is obvious.
Also, the Falcons’ results have been pretty shocking of late, while the Bears are enjoying a bit of an uplight, which is why we expect the home side to avenge their defeat to the Falcons in a low-scoring match up at Kingston Park back in October.
Recommended bet: Bristol/Bristol Double Result (2/5, Paddy Power)
Bristol Bears: 15. Luke Morahan; 14. Siva Naulago, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Piers O’Conor, 11. Henry Purdy; 10. Tom Whiteley, 9. Andy Uren; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Bryan Byrne, 3. Max Lahiff, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Joe Joyce (c), 6. Chris Vui, 7. Dan Thomas, 8. Fitz Harding.
Replacements: 16. Harry Thacker, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. John Afoa, 19. Sam Jeffries, 20. Steven Luatua, 21. Tiff Eden, 22. Antoine Frisch, 23. Alapati Leiua
Newcastle Falcons: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Adam Radwan, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Pete Lucock, 11 Nathan Earle, 10 Will Haydon-Wood, 9 Sam Stuart; 1 Adam Brocklebank, 2 George McGuigan, 3 Mark Tampin, 4 Greg Peterson, 5 Sean Robinson, 6 Gary Graham, 7 Will Welch (captain), 8 Callum Chick.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Smith, 17 Conrad Cade, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Josh Basham, 20 Connor Collett, 21 Cameron Nordli-Kelemeti, 22 Brett Connon, 23 Tom Penny.
EXETER CHIEFS
Saturday February 5th
14:30
PREDICTION – WASPS BY 8
WASPS
After victories over Leicester, Toulouse and Saracens in three of their last four games, Wasps will feel that anything is possible.
Add in the fact that their casualty list is now down to single figures, for the first time in ages, and Exeter have so many stars missing, the chances of an away win look better than ever.
Wasps have Joe Launchbury leading them out, Malakai Fekitoa back in the midfield and Alfie Barbeary back from England duty to cause mayhem wherever he pops us.
Exeter: 15 Josh Hodge, 14 Olly Woodburn, 13 Tom Hendrickson, 12 Harvey Skinner, 11 Tom O’Flaherty, 10 Joe Simmonds, 9 Sam Maunder; 1 Alec Hepburn, 2 Jack Innard, 3 Patrick Schickerling, 4 Jannes Kirsten, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 Dave Ewers, 7 Richard Capstick, 8 Santiago Grondona
Replacements: 16 Jack Yeandle, 17 Ben Moon, 18 Josh Iosefa-Scott, 19 Lewis Pearson, 20 Max Norey, 21 Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, 22 Sean O’Brien, 23 Facundo Cordero
Wasps: 15 Marcus Watson, 14 Paolo Odogwu, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Jimmy Gopperth, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Charlie Atkinson, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Tom West, 2 Tom Cruse, 3 Biyi Alo, 4 Joe Launchbury (c), 5 Elliott Stooke, 6 Vaea Fifita, 7 Brad Shields, 8 Alfie Barbeary
Replacements: 16 Gabriel Oghre, 17 Robin Hislop, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 James Gaskell, 20 Ben Morris, 21 Will Porter, 22 Sam Spink, 23 Rob Miller
LEICESTER TIGERS
Saturday February 5th
15:00
PREDICTION – TIGERS BY 24
WORCESTER WARRIORS
Looking at the respective tight fives, Leicester have it in them to bully the Warriors and lay the foundations for what should be a decent response to their defeat at Sale the other week.
In scoring four second-half tries, Sale showed that Leicester’s watertight defence can be unlocked with a bit of adventure and Worcester have the weapons to do that. But it’s a question of whether they’ll have enough decent ball to work with.
Steve Diamond won’t like seeing his new charges beaten in an arm wrestle but he’ll probably have to suck this one up and take it on the chin until he can bring in some ooph to beef up his under-powerred pack.
Recommended bet: Leicester -21 (10/11, Paddy Power)
Leicester Tigers: 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Guy Porter, 12 Dan Kelly, 11 Hosea Saumaki, 10 Freddie Burns, 9 Richard Wigglesworth; 1 James Whitcombe, 2 Julián Montoya, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Harry Wells, 5 Calum Green, 6 George Martin, 7 Hanro Liebenberg (c), 8 Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16 Charlie Clare, 17 Nephi Leatigaga, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Eli Snyman, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Olly Robinson, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Matt Scott
Worcester Warriors: 15 Jamie Shillcock, 14 Perry Humphreys, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Ashley Beck, 11 Alex Hearle, 10 Billy Searle, 9 Gareth Simpson, 1 Ethan Waller, 2 Niall Annett, 3 Christian Judge, 4 Joe Batley, 5 Justin Clegg, 6 Kyle Hatherell, 7 Ted Hill (C), 8 Matt Kvesic.
Replacements | 16 Isaac Miller, 17 Kai Owen, 18 Jay Tyack, 19 Tom Dodd, 20 Sione Vailanu, 21 Will Chudley, 22 Tom Howe, 23 Harri Doel.
SARACENS
Saturday February 5th
15:00
PREDICTION – SARRIES by 14
BATH RUGBY
Even with so many internationals away, Saracens are able to field a quality side including two World Cup final props in Mako Vunipola and Vincent Koch.
Bath’s callow front-row should be no match for Saracens and discipline could be an issue for the visitors.
Bath travel buoyed by their win over Harlequins but this has all the makings of being a bit of a comedown for the boys in blue, black and white.
Saracens: 15 Alex Goode (cc); 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Alex Lozowski, 12 Dom Morris, 11 Alex Lewington; 10 Manu Vunipola, 9 Ivan van Zyl; 1 Mako Vunipola (cc), 2 Tom Woolstencroft, 3 Vincent Koch, 4 Theo McFarland, 5 Tim Swinson, 6 Andy Christie, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Billy Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Ethan Lewis, 17 Richard Barrington, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Kapeli Pifeleti, 20 Sean Reffell, 21 Ruben de Haas, 22 Brandon Jackson, 23 Elliott Obatoyinbo
Bath Rugby: 15 Semesa Rokoduguni, 14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Cameron Redpath, 11 Will Muir, 10 Max Ojomoh, 9 Ben Spencer; 1 Arthur Cordwell, 2 Jacques du Toit, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 4 Josh McNally ©, 5 Will Spencer, 6 Mike Williams, 7 Jaco Coetzee, 8 Nathan Hughes
Replacements: 16 Tom Dunn, 17 Valeriy Morozov, 18 Kieran Verden, 19 Josh Dingley, 20 Nahum Merigan, 21 Joe Simpson, 22 Will Butt, 23 Tom Prydie
Yep, it’s the one you’ve all been waiting for. And after last year’s success in tipping Damien Penaud, hopefully, we can deliver for you again,
Antoine Dupont is 5/1 to match Brian O’Driscoll’s record of three player of the Championship awards having previously picked up the award in 2020 and