Buoyed by a rare away win at Newcastle and fortified by the presence of fit-again back-row trio, Josh Bayliss, Sam Underwood and Taulupe Faletau, there is a good chance that Bath can turn the tables on their nearest and dearest down the A4. However, there are still more arguments for an away win than a home one.
The Bath front-five is still an area of weakness and Danny Cipriani still looks suspect at 10 but at least Bath can count on prop Lewis Boyce and fly-half Orlando Bailey to make an impact if needed off the bench.
The worry for Bath is the lack of try-scoring threats in the backs. In the last five derbies, all won by Bristol, all but one of Bath’s 13 tries have been scored by backs so they need to deliver here.
However, Saturday’s back line is made up of players who are largely strangers to the whitewash. Jonathan Joseph has failed to score in the Premiership in over 30 matches, Cipriani is not far short of that mark either, Max Clark is not exactly prolific, Semesa Rokoduguni is not the same finisher he was three years ago and Will Butt has yet to score in six attempts. That leaves us with Tom de Glanville, who is more a creator of tries than a scorer, and scrum-half Ben Spencer.
Anytime try-scorer punters should probably look to the latter, as the former Saracens man is never afraid to back himself and give it a go when the time is right. Spencer is 21/10 to score a try with Paddy Power.
Bristol are understandably slight favourites but it’s a tough one to call in the Premiership rugby betting stakes.
Bath Rugby: 15 Tom de Glanville, 14 Semesa Rokoduguni, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Max Clark, 11 Will Butt, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Ben Spencer; 1 Valeriy Morozov, 2 Tom Doughty, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 4 Mike Williams, 5 Ewan Richards, 6 Josh Bayliss ©, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16 Jacques du Toit, 17 Lewis Boyce, 18 Ma’afu Fia, 19 Will Spencer, 20 Jaco Coetzee, 21 Joe Simpson, 22 Orlando Bailey, 23 Joe Cokanasiga
Bristol Bears: 15. Ioan Lloyd; 14. Siva Naulago, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Antoine Frisch, 11. Alapati Leiua; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Oscar Lennon; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Harry Thacker, 3. Jake Armstrong, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Joe Joyce (c), 6. Chris Vui, 7. Jake Heenan, 8. Sam Jeffries
Replacements: 16. Bryan Byrne, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. Ashley Challenger, 19. Steven Luatua, 20. Dan Thomas, 21. Theo Strang, 22. Tiff Eden, 23. Piers O’Conor
