Two games into the season and both these teams are searching for their first wins. For Bath, that is not entirely unexpected given their mediocrity over a number of seasons, but for a Bristol side with designs on the title, defeats to Saracens and Wasps have left most people scratching their heads.
It was always going to be difficult for the Bears to accommodate the loss of Ben Earl and Max Malins back to Saracens but maybe it’s the departure of Siale Puitau and the continued absence of Semi Radradra that has hit them the hardest.
Bristol win three-quarters of their games when Radradra plays and only around half when he doesn’t. Meanwhile, Piutau has left his more celebrated brother, Charles, behind in the West Country after five brilliant seasons. His hard-running in midfield fixed the focus of defenders and created space out wide, which the Bears expertly capitalised on last season.
And even if they do give the ball some air at the moment, Radradra, Siva Naulaga and Luke Morahan aren’t around to finish off the opportunities, although Henry Purdy has been a good friend of The Rugby Tipster in delivering when we’ve backed him to make an impact in the past (5/4 anytime try-scorer).
Bath haven’t won in Bristol since 2008 but now might be as good a time as any as this is a meeting between two sides struggling for rhythm and also struggling for points. Going to Ashton Gate with a rookie half-back partnership isn’t ideal but one area of the game that has gone well for Bath but not Bristol, especially, is the scrum, and the sight of Beno Obano and Will Stuart at prop is reassuring even if Bristol have Kyle Sinckler back.
Bath have been slow starters this season, and have failed to score a point in the first 20, so backing the blue, black and whites on the half-time handicap may be profitable (+5, 5/6, Paddy Power).
With Bristol having only scored 17 points this season and Bath 32 (less than 20 on each occasion against Newcastle and Sale), the even-money from William Hill on the match producing less than 49 points is tempting. Bath traditionally feature in matches where the ball-in-play time is down on the league average (less than 30 minutes), which also limits scoring opportunities.
Bath: 15 Tom de Glanville, 14 Semesa Rokoduguni, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Max Ojomoh, 11 Will Muir, 10 Orlando Bailey, 9 Ollie Fox; 1 Beno Obano, 2 Jacques du Toit, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Josh McNally, 5 Charlie Ewels ©, 6 Tom Ellis, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Josh Bayliss
Replacements: 16 Tom Dunn, 17 Lewis Boyce, 18 D’Arcy Rae, 19 Mike Williams, 20 Miles Reid, 21 Max Green, 22 Max Clark, 23 Anthony Watson
Bristol: 15. Charles Piutau; 14. Ioan Lloyd, 13. Piers O’Conor, 12. Sam Bedlow, 11. Henry Purdy; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Harry Randall; 1. Yann Thomas, 2. Will Capon, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Ed Holmes, 5. Joe Joyce, 6. Chris Vui, 7. Jake Heenan, 8. Steven Luatua (c).
Replacements: 16. Jake Kerr, 17. Jake Woolmore, 18. Max Lahiff, 19. Fitz Harding, 20. Dan Thomas, 21. Andy Uren, 22. Antoine Frisch, 23. Alapati Leiua.
