Gallagher Premiership 2021/22 - Round 5 Archive

The Rugby Tipster keeps you up-to-date with the latest on each round of matches in the Gallagher Premiership. Our in-depth knowledge of form and team selection can guide your rugby betting selections and get you the best rugby odds.

SALE SHARKS

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Friday October 15th

19:45

PREDICTION – QUINS BY 4

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HARLEQUINS

Quins have been playing so well you cannot help but think, ‘when is this honeymoon period going to end?’ Good things don’t last forever, but we think Quins may just have too much firepower for Sale to deal with, even though their results and performances up north haven’t been the best in recent times.

With both set-pieces fairly equal in their efficiency (both lineouts and scrums are operating at 90% plus), we reckon this clash will come down to a battle between Sale’s defence and Quins’ attack

The Sharks have made more dominant tackles than any other team (hitting the attacker back behind the gain line) but on the flip side, they have made the joint highest number of incomplete tackles. It is almost as if they punch themselves drunk. 

Their penalty concession rate is also double that of Quins and Marcus Smith is back in the number 10 jersey to punish any indiscretions from the kicking tee.

Over three-quarters of Quins’ points this season (71/113) have come in the second half and the visitors’ bench, from an attacking point of view at least, looks stronger than Sale’s.

The return of Tom Curry to Sale’s openside may make life difficult for Quins at the breakdown at first but he’ll do well to last more than an hour having not played since the Lions tour.

This could be a match that turns on its head and as a result, a HT/FT bet of Sale/Quins at (17/2 Bet 365) could be interesting.

Sale Sharks: 15. Simon Hammersley, 14. Denny Solomona, 13. Sam James, 12. Manu Tuilagi, 11. Byron McGuigan, 10. Kieran Wilkinson, 9. Raffi Quirke; 1. Bevan Rodd, 2. Curtis Langdon, 3. Nick Schonert, 4. Cobus Wiese, 5. Jean-Luc du Preez, 6. Jono Ross (C), 7. Tom Curry, 8. Daniel du Preez.

Replacements: 16. Tommy Taylor, 17. Ross Harrison, 18. Oosthuizen, 19. JP du Preez, 20. Cameron Nield, 21. Gus Warr, 22. Tom Curtis, 23. Luke James.

Harlequins: 15. Tyrone Green, 14. Joe Marchant, 13. Luke Northmore, 12. Andre Esterhuizen, 11. Cadan Murley, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Danny Care; 1. Joe Marler, 2. Jack Walker, 3. Simon Kerrod, 4. Matt Symons, 5. Dino Lamb, 6. James Chisholm, 7. Jack Kenningham, 8. Alex Dombrandt (Captain)

Replacements: 16. Sam Riley, 17. Fin Baxter, 18. Will Collier, 19. Hugh Tizard, 20. Tom Lawday, 21. Scott Steele, 22. Huw Jones, 23. Louis Lynagh


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NEWCASTLE FALCONS

Saturday October 16th

15:00

PREDICTION – FALCONS BY 6

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BRISTOL BEARS

That Newcastle are odds on favourites against last season’s semi-finalists tells you a lot about the Bristol side that Pat Lam has put out.

Missing a number of players to injury, Pat Lam makes nine changes to his starting line-up for the Kingston Park encounter. Eight of the starting lineup are homegrown or Academy graduates, with a further three Academy graduates among the replacements.

Normally experience counts for  a lot when playing up at Newcastle, a notoriously difficult place to get a result, so it could be a tough introduction to Premiership rugby for the likes of England U20s centre Jack Bates.

The Falcons should be able to cover four points on the handicap, while with Bristol not having scored a second-half point in three of their four matches to date, it’s probably wise to go under 23.5 second-half points (5/6, Paddy Power).

Newcastle Falcons: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Adam Radwan, 13 Ben Stevenson, 12 Max Wright, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Brett Connon, 9 Louis Schreuder; 1 Adam Brocklebank, 2 George McGuigan, 3 Trevor Davison, 4 Greg Peterson, 5 George Merrick, 6 Callum Chick, 7 Will Welch (captain), 8 Carl Fearns.

Replacements: 16 Jamie Blamire, 17 Kyle Cooper, 18 Richard Palframan, 19 Will Montgomery, 20 Gary Graham, 21 Cameron Nordli-Kelemeti, 22 Will Haydon-Wood, 23 George Wacokecoke

Bristol Bears: 15. Ioan Lloyd; 14. Toby Fricker, 13. Jack Bates, 12. Antoine Frisch, 11. Alapati Leiua; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Harry Randall; 1. Yann Thomas, 2. Jake Kerr, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Dave Attwood (c), 5. Joe Joyce, 6. Sam Jeffries, 7. Dan Thomas, 8. Fitz Harding

Replacements: 16. Harry Thacker, 17. Max Lahiff, 18. John Afoa, 19. John Hawkins, 20. Jake Heenan, 21. Andy Uren, 22. Tom Whiteley, 23. Charlie Powell

 

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WASPS

Saturday October 16th

15:00

PREDICTION – CHIEFS BY 8

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EXETER CHIEFS

More than a few feathers have been ruffled over the Chiefs’ branding, and Wasps stirred up the hornets’ nest even further with their midweek statement advising supporters not to wear headdresses.

Whether that serves to motivate the Chiefs only time will tell but looking at it purely from a rugby point of view, the visitors should have the edge in the front-row and set-piece.

Wasps field an all-new starting front-row, as Dan Frost makes his first Premiership start at hooker. Tom Cruse misses the game under the HIA protocol and  Joining Frost in the front row are Robin ‘Bomber’ Hislop and Jeff Toomaga-Allen. None of these players are slouches, far from it. Frost and Hislop have been outstanding performers in the Championship and deserve their big chance but opposing front-row is international quality.

Having Jonny Hill and Sam Simmonds back in the pack is also a massive boon to the Chiefs who are starting to play more like their old selves following wins over Sale and Worcester.

Both teams field exciting-looking backlines and the ball should be given some air. The Chiefs only managed a single unconverted try on their last two visits to Coventry but, on the last occasion in January, they went without the likes of Luke Cowan-Dickie, Harry Williams, Jonny Gray, Jonny Hill, Sam Skinner and Henry Slade.

The handicap has been set at +7 Wasps and we reckon the outcome will be there or thereabouts so our advice would be to go for a straight win on the Chiefs (best price 2/5).

Wasps: 15. Marcus Watson, 14. Zach Kibirige, 13. Michael Le Bourgeois, 12. Jimmy Gopperth, 11. Josh Bassett, 10. Jacob Umaga, 9. Dan Robson; 1. Robin Hislop, 2. Dan Frost, 3. Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 4. Vaea Fifita, 5. Elliot Stooke, 6. Brad Shields (C), 7. Thomas Young, 8. Tom Willis

Replacements: 16. Patrick Harrison, 17. Ben Harris, 18. Pieter Scholtz, 19. Tim Cardall, 20. Nizaam Carr, 21. Francois Hougaard, 22. Will Simonds, 23. Ali Crossdale

Exeter Chiefs: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Jack Nowell, 13. Henry Slade, 12. Tom Hendrickson, 11. Facundo Cordero, 10. Harvey Skinner, 9. Jack Maunder; 1. Alec Hepburn, 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3. Harry Williams, 4. Ryan McCauley, 5. Jonny Hill, 6. Dave Ewers, 7. Richard Capstick, 8. Sam Simmonds

Replacements: 16. Jack Yeandle, 17. Billy Keast, 18. Sam Nixon, 19. Will Witty, 20. Don Armand, 21. Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, 22. Joe Simmonds, 23. Tom O’Flaherty

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WORCESTER WARRIORS

Saturday October 16th

15:00

PREDICTION – TIGERS BY 5

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LEICESTER TIGERS

Tigers are reckoned to be 10-point favourites for this match which is a surprise considering Sixways has never been that favourable a venue.

Last season’s 18-17 win ended a run of three consecutive defeats there in all competitions and they come up against a Warriors side that has been strengthened in a number of key areas.

However, Leicester are on an upward trajectory and have the know-how to maintain the only remaining unbeaten record in the league, just not by scoring more than four tries.

It is rare for Worcester to not be involved in a high-scoring match and the Tigers might get the bonus point but to get more than four is a big ask. 

Tigers< 4.5 tries is 4/7 with Paddy Power.

Worcester Warriors: 15 Harri Doel, 14 Perry Humphreys, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Francois Venter (cc), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Billy Searle, 9 Will Chudley, 1 Rory Sutherland, 2 Scott Baldwin (cc), 3 Christian Judge, 4 Andrew Kitchener, 5 Justin Clegg, 6 Kyle Hatherell, 7 Sam Lewis, 8 Sione Vailanu.

Replacements: 16 Niall Annett, 17 Ethan Waller, 18 Jay Tyack, 19 Joe Batley, 20 Matt Kvesic, 21 Gareth Simpson, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Oli Morris.

Leicester Tigers: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 George Ford, 9 Jack van Poortvliet, 1 Ellis Genge (c), 2 Julián Montoya, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Harry Wells, 5 Eli Snyman, 6 Hanro Liebenberg, 7 Marco van Staden, 8 Jasper Wiese

Replacements: 16 Nic Dolly, 17 Nephi Leatigaga, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Cameron Henderson, 20 Ollie Chessum, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 Freddie Burns, 23 Kini Murimurivalu

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BATH RUGBY

Sunday October 17th

15:00

PREDICTION: SARRIES BY 16

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SARACENS

Having been a poor imitation of Saracens for the last couple of Saracens with their focus on playing without the ball and forcing the opposition into errors, Bath have finally decided to use the attacking weapons at their disposal.

There were lots of encouraging signs in the 25-20 West Country derby defeat to Bristol in round 3 but any enthusiasm has to be tempered by the fact that the Bears have lost every other game so far this season.

Also, Bath are still in the evolution process under new attack coach Dave Williams and if there is one team you don’t want to be against whilst you’re still in the experimentation stage, it is Saracens. Sarries thrive off handling mistakes and poor decision-making and with Bath still finding their way with ball in hand, there are bound to be some of both, especially on a day when the ball might be greasy from overnight rain.

For us, this has all the makings of a nightmare home debut for Danny Cipriani, with the chances of an intercept or hack on try very high. Aled Davies reads those types of situations well and is good value at 9/2 to be an anytime try-scorer. 

Sarries will fancy their chances of having the edge upfront and will squeeze the life out of Bath initially before piling on the points and the agony. Betway are offering 9/10 on the second half being the highest-scoring half in the match.

With confidence high that Sarries can do a number on Bath, our advice is to go with the men in black at -11 on the handicap (5/4, Skybet).

Bath: 15 Tom de Glanville, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Max Ojomoh, 11 Will Muir, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Ollie Fox; 1 Beno Obano, 2 Tom Dunn, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Josh McNally, 5 Charlie Ewels (c), 6 Miles Reid, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Josh Bayliss

Replacements: 16 Jacques du Toit, 17 Lewis Boyce, 18 D’Arcy Rae, 19 Mike Williams, 20 Tom Ellis, 21 Max Green, 22 Orlando Bailey, 23 Ruaridh McConnochie

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Alex Lozowski, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Max Malins, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Aled Davies; 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Jamie George, 3 Marco Riccioni, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Tim Swinson, 6 Nick Isiekwe, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Billy Vunipola

Replacements: 16 Tom Woolstencroft, 17 Eroni Mawi, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Andy Christie, 20 Sean Reffell, 21 Ivan van Zyle, 22 Dom Morris, 23 Rotimi Segun

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LONDON IRISH

Sunday October 17th

15:00

PREDICTION – GLOS BY 6

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GLOUCESTER RUGBY

A meeting between two of the most unpredictable teams in the league doesn’t make for safe gambling territory, so we are more inclined to look at the points market for this one.

Looking at the last six fixtures between the teams, the average number of points per game is 56, while the bookies have set Under/Overs at 54.5.

With most of the rain having skirted around London, the fact the game is being played on a fast track by two teams who have threats across the board, and the current trend for teams to give it a go, it wouldn’t be a surprise if ‘Overs’ wins the day. Supporting this, three of the six matches involving these sides this season have gone past the 60-point mark.

The confidence that Gloucester gained from last week’s away win over Worcester may just tip the balance in their favour. The Cherry & Whites are a best-priced 13/10 with Betfred.

London Irish: 15 Tom Parton, 14 Ben Loader, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Terrence Hepetema, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nick Phipps; 1 Allan Dell, 2 Agustin Creevy, 2 Marcel van der Merwe, 4 Steve Mafi, 5 Rob Simmons, 6 Matt Rogerson (c), 7 Isaac Curtis-Harris, 8 Albert Tuisue.

Replacements: 16 Matt Cornish, 17 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Ben Donnell, 21 Ben White, 22 Rory Jennings, 23 Benhard van Rensburg.

Gloucester: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Mark Atkinson, 11 Jonny May, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 Ben Meehan; 1 Val Rapava-Ruskin, 2, Jack Singleton, 3 Kirill Gotovtsev, 4 Freddie Clarke, 5 Matias Alemanno, 6 Ruan Ackermann, 7 Lewis Ludlow (c), 8 Ben Morgan.

Replacements: 16 Santiago Socino, 17 Harry Elrington, 18 Jamal Ford-Robinson, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Jack Clement, 21 Charlie Chapman, 22 Billy Twelvetrees, 23 Kyle Moyle.

 

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