- 1pt: All Blacks +36.5 pts (5/6 Paddy Power)
- 0.5pt: All Blacks to win by 26-30pts (15/2, Paddy Power)
The chances of UK rugby fans getting to see the latest instalment of the Bledisloe Cup on live TV appear to be as remote as the chances of a Wallaby win (14/1, Boyle Sports).
As we write this, less than 24 hours before kick-off, no broadcast deal is in place, which is a real shame as the competition often delivers some spectacular matches.
Only limited betting markets are available with a lot of bookmakers as a result of this, but Paddy Power are still offering odds on how many points each team will score.
In the last six clashes between the trans-Tasman rivals at Eden Park, the All Blacks average 39 points – marginally more than the line set by the bookies.
We feel the All Blacks will go over 36.5 points (5/6, Paddy Power) and pass 40, just, on this occasion. It is 20 matches since they put a half-century of points on the Wallabies.
Australia showed plenty of guts in winning the recent Test series against France 2-1, but this All Blacks team should have plenty of tries in them.
New Zealand have won their last four test matches, beating Fiji twice (60-13 and 57-23), Tonga 102-0 and Argentina 38-0 in that run.
And the All Blacks love playing at Eden Park; they are unbeaten in 43 matches there, a run dating back to a 23-20 loss to France in 1994.
The Wallabies have been beaten on each of their last 20 visits there, with their last success coming in 1986.
We’re going to shy away from the total points market, set at 51.5 points, because of doubts over Australia’s ability to score points other than through the boot of Noah Lolesio.
Lolesio’s kicking was responsible for both of the Wallabies’ victories against France with the fly-half accounting for 57 percent of their points from the tee.
The absence of in-form Marika Koroibete’s from the matchday 23 due to a breach of team protocol bluntens their attacking threat.
In terms of experience, there is no contest. Australia’s starting XV has just 360 caps compared to New Zealand’s 614, captain Michael Hooper and prop James Slipper account for 211 of them with the backline boasting only 45 caps between them.
The All Blacks will also be fielding two centurions in captain Sam Whitelock and scrum-half, Aaron Smith, who reaches the landmark at the citadel of New Zealand rugby.
He should be celebrating a win in the region of 26-30 points (15/2, Paddy Power).
