- Italy +15 v France (10/11)
Okay, so they are missing their main ball carrier, Jake Polledri. But if Italy are ever going to win in Paris, you’d have to think Saturday’s game represents their best opportunity for some time.
France have been forced into making 13 changes and field a matchday 23 very light on experience – 148 caps’ worth.
The agreement with the professional clubs that dictates players can only play in three Autumn internationals means they are missing all their star performers. Players like their captain and free-scoring flanker Charles Ollivon, loose forward destroyer Gregory Alldritt and the standout scrum-half in world rugby right now, Antoine Dupont, are all missing.
Head coach Fabien Glathie has named five uncapped players in his starting line-up, with another six on the bench.
As good as the pipeline of players from the U20 side through to the senior team has been, it’s asking a lot of this experimental side to continue the feel-good factor in French rugby.
To an extent, even the more experienced heads, like scrum-half and captain Baptiste Serin and full-back Brice Dulin, will feel like new caps due to extended periods away from the team.
The h’cap doesn’t fit
So can Italy, rejuvenated after a week off following the cancellation of their game against Fiji, capitalise and beat Les Bleus for only the fourth time in history?
The Azzurri showed encouraging signs that they could be about to turn the corner against Scotland in round one before their trademark fall away in the final quarter.
Italy have forgotten how to win games – their last victory was at the World Cup against Namibia – so backing them without the comfort of the handicap could be too nerve-racking.
Imagine our relief then to discover the men from across the Med had been given a 15-point start!
If they don’t overcome that, then some questions need to be asked of Franco Smith.
Smith has only made three changes and while the loss of Polledri to injury is a blow, he can still count on some seasoned performers like Leonardo Ghiraldini and Tommaso Allan if needs to turn to his bench to change the complexion of the match.
Italy have struggled to put points on the opposition in recent years. But with Nigel Owens officiating in his record 100th Test, the game should be a free-flowing one by their standards.
Italy should have at least a couple of tries in them against a Les Bleus defence that contains hastily put together partnerships.
