16 of England's 20 tries in the last 10 fixtures between the teams have come from the backs.
- England to be winning 1-7 points at half-time (11/5, Paddy Power)
- Elliot Daly anytime try-scorer (11/4, Paddy Power)
- Total Match Points prediction <45.5 (odds not yet available)
England kick the ball a hell of a lot and Wales don’t know what to do with it. Those are two of the conclusions you can draw from the first two rounds of the Autumn Nations Cup.
Had Liam Williams been in form and in the team, England’s obsession with putting their ball through the laces might have been back-fired. But Leigh Halfpenny, a far more conservative 15, has been chosen instead and it’s hard to imagine too many scything runs from deep.
Granted, the weather was appalling for Wales’ 18-0 win against Georgia but you’d still have expected more of them as an attacking force. It is hard to see Wales penetrating England’s proud defence too often. If Ireland could only muster a consolation for Jacob Stockdale in the dying throes of last week’s a match at Twickenham, what hope do Wales have?
It’s the hope that kills you …
England often bring the best out of Wales but what’s Wales’ best right now?
As always, they have the hope of the nation. But while that may be enough to keep England in check – especially if England do give away possession and drop a good percentage of the ball they have (they are top for handling errors in the ANC), everything points to a fairly comfortable away win … in the end.
It’s our feeling Wales could still be in with a shout at half-time before succumbing later on.
Wales’ starting front-row includes Samson Lee and Wyn Jones, their best-two scrummagers, so getting parity with England there shouldn’t be a problem, at least for the first 50-60 minutes. But the wheels could come off after that.
Also, Wales are still clearly in an experimental stage of their development as a team under new head coach Wayne Pivac, while England are pretty well settled as a unit with everyone knowing their individual roles.
On top of that, the bench England have named is impressively strong and while they haven’t tended to put teams away of late, they could stamp their authority on the match in the last quarter.
England to be winning by 1-7 points at half-time is 11/5 (Paddy Power).
Daly delivery?
Jamie George’s hat-trick against Georgia helped to highlight to opposition coaches the importance of maul defence when playing England.
In that respect, Wales did a good job in keeping Georgia out last weekend so first/anytime try-scorer punters may be advised to look elsewhere.
Indeed, 16 of England’s 20 tries in the last 10 fixtures between the teams have come from the backs.
Elliot Daly might not be a bad shout at 11/4 to score anytime. The Saracens man scored three in as many games, including one in the 33-30 Six Nations win over Wales, before drawing a blank against Georgia. And Georgia wasn’t a game suitable for dashing full-back play.
