- England to beat France by 13+ pts (8/15)
- Scotland +10 on the h'cap (10/11) v Ireland; Ireland-Scotland Total Tries <4.5 (4/5)
- Italy +8pts on the H/T h'cap (5/6); Wales v Italy Total Match Points <44.5 pts (5/6)
- Fiji to win by 1-12 pts v Georgia (15/8)
Trophy-hunting England to deliver
There can be no excuses from England if they don’t make off with the inaugural Autumn Nations trophy at Twickenham this Sunday.
France haven’t won at English rugby’s HQ since 2007 and arrive with a side greener than the lush Twickenham turf.
Of course, there is a confidence about French rugby at the moment, and the stand-in players performed well in patches in demolishing Italy in round three, but beating a settled England side in their own backyard is a different matter altogether.
England’s only change comes in the backs where Anthony Watson returns to the wing. This a well-oiled machine that can cope with most conditions and most opponents.
France’s three-try blitz in the space of eight second-half minutes led to a flattering 36-5 scoreline in their favour against the Azzurri.
And while they are capable of turning it on with flashes of brilliance against England this Sunday, a two-score victory or more will be what Eddie Jones is after.
Dublin factor may be enough
Even though they haven’t won in Dublin at the Aviva Stadium in its current shiny guise, Scotland won’t have felt threatened by anything they’d have seen from Ireland over the last few weeks.
There are still more questions than answers as Andy Farrell’s distinctly average first year in charge comes to a close.
The side Farrell has put out should be strong enough to ward off an upset on home soil, though, but good enough to defy a 10-point handicap? We’re not so sure.
Much could depend on how Jaco van der Walt goes on debut in the No.10 jersey for Scotland. If he can get dangerous runners like Duhan van der Merwe into the game, then Scotland are capable of scoring points in the wide channels.
With both teams boasting the only 100% goal-kicking records in the competition, referee Matt Carley could find himself pointing at the posts a lot.
Kicking penalties to the corners is normally the go-to tactic nowadays, but with a slippery ball expected and two trusty kickers in Johnny Sexton and van der Walt on show, the respective captains might regard accumulating points three at a time as more prudent.
A tight, low-scoring game looks in prospect.
Pivac hopes for repeat of fab Feb
Wayne Pivac’s first Test in charge of Wales was against Italy; how he would love a repeat of that 42-0 victory in the Six Nations at Parc y Scarlets on Saturday!
Under Pivac, Wales have regresssed in terms of results, losing six on the bounce before scraping home 18-0 against Georgia.
However, Italy have not shown anything to suggest they could beat the men in red for the first time 13 years.
The Azzurri have been a blunt attacking force and were pretty abject for most of their last game against a second string French team.
It was a game they should have been targeting to win but they fell apart, as they always seem to do.
Maintaining an 80-minute performance is a real problem and Wales should have a relatively trouble-free ride in the last half an hour.
But it might be worth having a punt on the Italians on the half-time +8 points handicap (10/11, Paddy Power) as it may take a while for Wales to get into their stuttering stride.
Also, as neither side is exactly prolific in attack, we’d be looking at the Unders market of 44.5 points.
Fiji’s Cup final
Having not played for over 423 days, Fiji will be well up for this one.
Couped up in a hotel in France for weeks on end while they waited for the COVID-19 nightmare to go away, they will be hoping to finally show the world what they can do.
Fiji enjoyed a 30-point plus victory over Georgia at the Rugby World Cup and are able to call upon some of the stars of Japan 2019.
Semi Radradra captains the side and, like scrum-half Frank Lomani, will be looking to add to his tally of three tries in two appearances against the Lelos. They are 8/1 and 20/1, respectively, to get the first try.
The match is a real contracts of styles as Georgia’s forward might comes up against Fijian flair. Normally, in cold and wet conditions in Edinburgh, you’d back the former to prevail.
However, Fiji have too many talented ball players to let Georgia grind them down into a war of attrition.
Georgia have been strong defensively to date, but stopping the route one, bludgeoning approach of northern hemisphere teams like Wales and Ireland is far easier than stopping these Pacific Islanders in full flight.
Fiji will make mistakes, that’s a given due to their time away from this level of rugby, and also because of the weather, so Georgia might be able to pounce and score a try or two. But Fiji would be disappointed if they didn’t manage four or five in return.
With Georgia’s scrum showing signs that it may not be the force that it once was, and Fiji’s having improved no end (they were one of only four teams to have a 100% success rate on their own put-in at the World Cup, there should be enough quality ball for the backs to run with.
Fiji aren’t worth backing at 1/6 but a margin of 1-12 points is available at 15/8.
*All odds Paddy Powhis
