- Irish to score +2.5 tries (Evns, Paddy Power)
If Bath and London Irish can conjure up a match as chaotic as the Premiership meeting a fortnight ago, when the West Country side came away from Brentford with two bonus points, and almost a win, despite being down to 12 men at one point, then BT Sport viewers are in for a treat. The match featured nine tries, two red cards, a handful of yellows and eventually ended in a 36-33 win for the Exiles.
By and large though, Bath have held the upper hand in the head-to-head stakes, particularly by the banks of the River Avon. But there does seem to still be a bit of an element of disrespect shown by the bookies to Irish who appear to be on a similar trajectory to the side that reached the semi-finals of the European Cup in 2008 and was within a couple of points of being crowned champions of England a year later.
Giving them an eight-point start may be justified on past history but this Exiles team has what others of recent years have lacked – potent strike threats in the backs, and a good blend of youth and experience.
Initially, in the Declan Kidney/Les Kiss era, the Exiles were heavily reliant on the boot of Paddy Jackson to give them scoreboard momentum. But in Ollie Hassell-Collins, Ben Loader, Tom Parton and Theo Brophy-Clews, they now have strike threats aplenty, as Cardiff Blues found out to their cost in another crazy Round of 16 game that ended 41-35 to the Exiles.
If the sight of old boys Anthony Watson, Joe Cokanasiga and Jonathan Joseph reminds the Exiles of their past, the aforementioned quartet promise to be part of a very exciting future – if they decide to keep the faith and remain in west London rather than follow where the money is.
Unless Bath have suddenly found a defensive backbone – they are leaking tries at an average of four per match since the end of February – Irish’s young guns will cause some problems for the blue, black and whites.
Referee Frank Murphy showed in the recent Wasps v Clermont Champions Cup clash that he is not overly fussed by minor details like forward passes so the odd try or two might slip through the net and be given when perhaps closer inspection, via the TMO, is the advisable option to take … another reason to support Irish scoring over 2.5 tries at Evens with Paddy Power.
Similarly, Bath have scored 22 tries across their last four matches so it all points to another high-scoring game, maybe not quite as high as 57 points in the game though.
Bath: 15. Anthony Watson, 14. Joe Cokanasiga, 13. Jonathan Joseph, 12. Cameron Redpath, 11. Ruaridh McConnochie, 10. Orlando Bailey, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Beno Obano, 2. Jack Walker, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Josh McNally, 5. Charlie Ewels ©, 6. Taulupe Faletau, 7. Josh Bayliss, 8. Zach Mercer
Replacements: 16. Jacques du Toit, 17. Juan Schoeman, 18. Henry Thomas, 19. Mike Williams, 20. Miles Reid, 21. Will Chudley, 22. Max Clark, 23. Alex Gray.
London Irish: 15. Tom Parton, 14. Ben Loader, 13. Theo Brophy Clews, 12. Terrence Hepetema, 11. Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Nick Phipps; 1. Facundo Gigena, 2. Agustin Creevy, 3. Lovejoy Chawatama, 4. George Nott, 5. Rob Simmons, 6. Matt Rogerson ©, 7. Blair Cowan, 8. Albert Tuisue.
Replacements: 16. Matt Cornish, 17. Harry Elrington, 18. Ollie Hoskins, 19. Chunya Munga, 20. Ben Donnell, 21. Sean O’Brien, 22. Ben Meehan, 23. James Stokes
