Best bets:
London Irish v Gloucester – second half to be highest-scoring half (Evens)
Northampton -3 v Bath first half handicap (Evens)
Friday night: London Irish v Gloucester
Nine points and seven places may separate the sides but is there all that much between them? Not really.
Gloucester scraped wins against Bristol and Bath, had a record half-time comeback to beat Wasps and narrowly lost at Saracens when the game looked to be theirs.
The Cherry & Whites could easily have been four wins from four or no wins from four so it is easy to see why the bookies are struggling to fall into one camp or the other, especially as there was nothing to split the teams the last time they faced each other in Brentford (a 25-25 draw).
However, with the conditions set to be wet in west London and Gloucester having the better tight and physical game, we expect them to edge this one.
For those not confident of backing the outcome, why not try your luck in the first-half/second-half points market?
Irish concede just over 70% of their tries after the break and score more tries in the second 40 than in the first which suggests the game could come alive from the 40-minute mark onwards.
Saturday away days
We’re going to go for two away wins in Saturday’s encounters – Bath v Northampton and Exeter v Saracens.
Due to the way Sarries have been throwing the ball around this season, the bookies may overact in the total points line and put it north of 52 points rather than south.
Unders is the way to go for us if that is the case because, historically, games between these two at Sandy Park have been low-scoring encounters, where no quarter is asked nor given.
In the four meetings since Sarries last won in Devon, the average number of match points is a measly 34 as opposed to 64 points when the fixture is reversed.
Also, both teams go into this match fully loaded as it is the last time they’ll see their England stars for a good six weeks. It will be competitive, and it will be feisty, but we don’t think it will be a points fest.
Maintaining the stats theme, Bath are a side struggling to put together two decent halves of rugby.
The bottom-of-the-table team has shone after the break but has been abysmal before it. Their first half record is 44 points for/122 against, while in the second half, the split is in their favour 105/80.
With that in mind, we like the look of Saints at -3 on the first-half handicap (Evns).
While it has been raining all day in the West Country, the forecast is for it to be dry in Bath on Saturday.
Both teams are much better attacking-wise than defensively so even though the surface might have a bit of give in it, tries shouldn’t be too hard to come by.
