Exeter Chiefs (0 pts, 10/1), Saracens (3pts, 10/1), Bristol (6pts, 6/1), Sale Sharks (9ts, 10/1), Harlequins (12pts, 10/1), Northampton (15pts, 10/1), Wasps (18pts, 10/1), Leicester 21pts, 6/1), Bath (21pts, 10/1), Gloucester (24pts, 10/1), Worcester (27pts, 10/1) London Irish (27pts, 19/1), Newcastle (30pts, 10/1)
Going on logic that Bristol Bears have improved every year under Pat Lam, the West Country club should at least make this season’s final if not go on and win the League for the first time in history.
Losing Ben Earl and Max Malins back to Saracens is a blow as the pair contributed a hatful of tries between them but Bristol are still well-stacked with talent in every position.
The Bears hit the front in Round 6 last season after they defeated Exeter and never looked back, finishing three points clear of the Chiefs.
Four of those points came as a result of a COVID result but, even so, from a rugby handicap betting perspective you’d expect them to be the ‘scratch’ team.
That ‘honour’ instead falls to the Chiefs who are clearly expected to bounce back from last season’s defeat in the final at the hands of Harlequins.
But are they certain to finish six points better off than Bristol as the handicap suggests? We think not.
Next comes Saracens. It is asking a lot of them to pick up from where they left off and return from the Championship with all guns blazing throughout the course of the season.
Sarries have it in their DNA to be successful but it is going to take time for them to find their feet again, especially with their English Lions contingent missing for the early rounds.
Bonus round
Sale Sharks do not suffer fools gladly – or should that be ‘saffer’ with their South African connections – and it would be wrong to write them off.
But procuring try bonus points appears to be a problem they can’t resolve (just five to Bristol’s 13) and nine points added to their total might not be enough.
Alex Sanderson’s side finished 11 points behind Bristol last season and even if you apply this season’s handicap, they would still be eight points adrift of the Bears.
Quins became champions because they were able to play a settled side week in week out and their style suited knockout – just like the Quins teams of old when the team peaked for the Pilkington Cup Finals.
But they might not be quite so fortunate with a lack of injuries in key positions this time around and, looking at last season’s table, there was a lot of clear water between themselves in fourth and Bristol after 22 rounds.
Open field
Pre-season, Northampton DoR Chris Boyd spoke about how the 2021/22 campaign may be extremely competitive due to a levelling out of squads and no relegation.
He said: “It is a tough league and a very even league and I think the fact there is no relegation this season is going to make it an even tougher league,” he said.
“I think the difference between finishing fourth and eighth is going to be a couple of bonus points.
“If you look at where squads are at, I think there is a better distribution of talent.
“The top end will always be the top end but as the standards of the middle-tier guys and the bottom-end guys all improve then the average standard get higher and higher and higher and I think that’s what happening in this league at the moment.
“There’s a hardly a situation now where you’d be really comfortable to go and put your house on Team A being absolutely 100 per cent certain of beating Team B.
“That’s a great place for us to be in as a league and excites supporters. You might think that you’ve got a bit of an advantage over another team but if you have a bad day and they have a good day, you are going to come out on the wrong side of it.”
It’s a cinch
With all the those below the top-end teams likely to be taking points off each other, it is hard to justify selecting one of the higher handicapped teams.
Boyd’s Saints finished a whopping 14 points adrift of the play-off zone and 28 behind table-topping Bristol.
However, the return of fans will be particularly welcome at the cinch Stadium at Franklin’s Gardens and that should help lift them.
Also, with a very familiar squad to last year, many of whom who have come through the academy together, the bedding in process might not be as difficult for them as others. Saints were bottom after three rounds last year and always playing catch-up and a repeat is unlilely.
Of all the teams outside of last season’s play-offs, they perhaps have the best chance of winning on the handicap.
Given 15 points, Saints would still need to pull something extraordinary out of the bag. Based on last season’s totals, that would leave them with 72 points – still well shy of the top contenders.
Last season Saints won exactly as many games as they lost and they’d have to make that at least a 14/8 split to be in with a chance.
For us, there’s no looking past the Bears (+6) at 6/1.
