New Zealand’s men have only ever lost one match in six previous Commonwealth Games rugby sevens tournaments so you’d expect them to be bang-on favourites for the gold medal, right?
However, for all their dominance, the fact that they have played so little together and are very much a new-look team counts against them.
Instead, double Olympic champions Fiji are expected to finally find their way to the top of the podium after a string of near-misses since rugby was officially welcomed as a Commonwealth Games event in 1998.
Fiji, with Jerry Tuwai still in the fold, are unstoppable on their day and since returning to the HSBC World Rugby Sevens Series, they haven’t failed to make the podium in the four tournaments they have taken part in.
Fiji and New Zealand are understandably short odds to win gold at 5/4 and 7/4, respectively (Paddy Power), but we’d expect few takers on the 7/2 about South Africa.
The Springbok Sevens stormed to the top of the World Series table (and are just about still there) while the remainder of the southern hemisphere big guns sat out the early rounds due to Covid-19 travel restrictions. But since the competition became full-blooded once again, with the likes of Fiji, New Zealand and Samoa back in the fold, they have looked like a shadow of the team that won the first four titles at a canter.
For those looking for bigger odds, we think Samoa will give you a good run for their money. The 16/1 shots have reached the last three World Series semi-finals and should see off what looks like a weak England (Evens in Friday’s handicap match betting, -3), to top their pool.
Australia are also dangerous but don’t represent great value at 4/1, even though they go to Birmingham fresh from winning in London – their first World Series tournament title success since 2018.
As for the women’s event, it’s hard to look past defending champions New Zealand and 2016 Olympic champions Australia.
However, in winning bronze at the Tokyo Olympics, Fijiana showed they are turning their undoubted promise as a team into tangible rewards.
A small flutter on them at 5/1 is unlikely to leave you feeling short-changed.
