- Tight game expected; Toulon to edge it
- Sergio Parisse 25/1 for 1st try-scorer
“If this game had come last weekend, I’d have fancied Bristol Bears more than Toulon. But having been through the mill a little bit in the Premiership semi-final, it tilts the balance in favour of Toulon.
Bristol are top in just about every attacking category, including tries scored (38) and points scored (302) in this season’s European Challenge Cup, from their eight matches to date.
Like Toulon, they have got to the showpiece match unbeaten and will be desperate to finish the job off and land their first major silverware in 37 years.
Toulon only conceded eight tries on their way to topping Pool 2 and then shut out the Scarlets in the quarter-finals, albeit on a bog of a surface at the Stade Mayol that made running rugby nigh on impossible.
However, in the semi-final, they let in two tries against a Leicester Tigers side that has failed to fire a shot in the Premiership. Bristol will offer a much stiffer examination of their defensive credentials and will back themselves to score over 25 points.
Leicester’s Nemani Nadolo managed to bulldoze his way through Toulon for a try and who’s to say Semi Radradra won’t do the same against the club who gave him his European debut three years ago? Radradra is 12/1 on the first try-scorer betting.
How the Bears could come unstuck
The inconvenience of travelling to France and the absence of Nathan Hughes from the back-row – Ben Earl moves to No.8 and Dan Thomas comes in on the blindside – are two negatives that could count against them, however.
Earl nonetheless will relish the chance to run at speed at the slender frame of Toulon’s young and talented fly-half Louis Carbonel.
Also, there is the after-effect of last weekend’s bad loss to Wasps in the Premiership semi-final to consider.
Experienced rugby commentator and Top 14 expert, Martin Gillingham, believes the final comes at just the right time for Toulon, but not for Bristol.
“If this game had come last weekend, I’d have fancied Bristol Bears more than Toulon. But having been through the mill a little bit in the Premiership semi-final, it tilts the balance in favour of Toulon.
“Having been in the doldrums with the change of ownership, the period of high turnover of coaches post their golden era when they won their three straight Heineken Cups, they will be desperate to win something.
“With this being in Aix-en-Provence, it is effectively a home tie, and I think it will be very difficult for Bristol with what little crowd there will be (1,000) clearly partisan and backing the home side.
“I would be just edging it in favour of Toulon.”
Small margins
In a match between two evenly-balanced sides, freshness and travel fatigue – as well as appetite and desire – could be the deciding factors and that’s the reason why we’re backing Toulon to win by 1-5 points (11/2).
Toulon are not the Galacticos of old but in Eben Etzebeth and Sergio Parisse they have two genuine world-class players in the pack, while Gabin Villiere is a rising star on the wing and is 9/1 to be first try-scorer.
“I think they have enough power up front, and they have strength on the bench as well,” added Gillingham.
“It’s a better looking Toulon side than we’ve had for two or three years.”
Parisse has twice been denied emotional swansongs on the international front through Typhoon Hagibis and Covid-19 and, if only for sentimental reasons, it would be fitting if he could put those disappointments behind him with a European winner’s medal.
