- Montpellier +2 v Leicester (10/11)
The bookmakers are not buying into Steve Borthwick’s assertion that Leicester are “massive underdogs” for Friday night’s European Challenge Cup final against Montpellier at Twickenham.
Layers actually make the Tigers two-point favourites as they go in search of their first silverware since lifting the Anglo-Welsh Cup in 2017.
It is a poor attempt at psychology from the former England coach although he is right to point out the glut of internationals in the Montpellier line-up.
In-form
Borthwick also highlighted the form Montpellier are in since Philippe Saint-Andre took on a more hands-on role following a disastrous start to the season under Xavier Garbajosa.
An eight-game winning run, which included wins over Toulouse and Clermont in the Top 14 and Bath away in the semi-finals of the Challenge Cup, only came to an end on Saturday when a shadow team was beaten 32-10 by Stade Francais.
Montpellier’s revival has been built on a rock-solid defence and if Leicester adopt the blinkered bish-bash approach that Bath tried, they are likely to come up short.
Like Bath, Tigers love nothing more than scoring from close range, as Ellis Genge (6/1 anytime try-scorer), a two-try hero in last weekend’s win against Harlequins will attest. But they will have to find another way of getting past a Montpellier side that is clearly playing for each other and has a terrific goal-line defence.
Montpellier, the 2016 Challenge Cup winners, also know plenty about the threat Nemani Nadolo poses on the wing, the Fijian having played for the club before moving to the Midlands in 2019.
Fly guy
Alex Lozowski (20/1 to be man-of-the-match) won two Heineken Champions Cup titles in his time at Saracens and will be looking to add a third European crown to his collection.
The former England centre has been pressed into a makeshift fly-half for most of the season due to Handre Pollard’s long-term knee injury and wears the No.10 jersey again at Twickenham.
Pollard, however, makes the bench after being wrapped up in cotton wool, and having a tried and tested goalkicker and World Cup winner to call upon only enhances Montpellier’s chances of lifting the trophy.
Lozowski is confident his year with Montpellier can end on a high before he returns to Saracens duty.
“Obviously, I’ve played against Leicester a number of times; I know a few of their players quite well.
“I’ve tried to share that with everyone, and we’ve tried to take on board a few of the things we think they might bring, a few of their threats.
“I think we feel pretty well-prepared for the game on Friday night now.”
With a wet day of weather forecast for London on Friday and Montpellier’s reputation for keeping the opposition at bay, this has the makings of a tight, low-scoring final: one that we think Montpellier will edge.
Leicester: 15. Freddie Steward, 14. Guy Porter, 13. Matias Moroni, 12. Dan Kelly, 11. Nemani Nadolo, 10. George Ford, 9. Richard Wigglesworth, 1. Ellis Genge, 2. Tom Youngs (c), 3. Dan Cole, 4. Harry Wells, 5. Calum Green, 6. Hanro Liebenberg, 7. Cyle Brink, 8. Jasper Wiese.
Replacements: 16. Charlie Clare, 17. Luan de Bruin, 18. Joe Heyes, 19. Cameron Henderson, 20. Tommy Reffell, 21. Ben Youngs, 22. Zack Henry, 23. Kini Murimurivalu,
Montpellier: 15. Anthony Bouthier, 14. Arthur Vincent, 13. Johan Goosen, 12. Jan Serfontein, 11. Vincent Rattez, 10. Alex Lozowski, 9. Benoit Paillaugue, 1. Enzo Forletta, 2. Guilhem Guirado (c), 3. Mohamed Haouas, 4. Florian Verhaeghe, 5. Paul Willemse, 6. Fulgence Ouedraogo, 7. Yacouba Camara, 8. Alexandre Becognee.
Replacements: 16. Bismarck Du Plessis, 17. Robert Rodgers, 18. Titi Lamositele, 19. Tyler Duguid, 20. Jacques Du Plessis, 21. Cobus Reinach, 22. Handré Pollard, 23. Gabriel N’gandebe,
