- Bristol Bears win v Bordeaux-Begles (4/11); Over 28.5 points (4/5)
- Exeter Chiefs v Toulouse -3 h'cap (10/11)
- Saracens v Racing 92 +3 h'cap (10/11)
Yes, it’s a cliché but the fact of the matter is that the French still do not travel well in Europe.
Taking the last two seasons combined, Top 14 clubs have lost in the countries of all the other participants – England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and even Italy.
A fraction over a third of all fixtures featuring French clubs on foreign soil, from the 2019/19 and 2019/20 seasons, have ended in wins for sides from across the channel (34%).
And when you consider Toulouse’s wretched form on the road in the Top 14, Exeter Chiefs are deserved favourites to win at Sandy Park in Devon and make it through to the Heineken Champions Cup final.
Toulouse, who are chasing a record fifth title, have not won away from home in domestic competition since defeating Agen on 21 December.
In the Champions Cup, they won at Gloucester, but only after the Cherry & Whites threw away a late lead, as is their custom, and also triumphed at Montpelier and Connacht.
But facing Exeter on their own patch is a totally different proposition, especially with a stiff northerly breeze forecast for Saturday afternoon.
Toulouse accounted for Ulster in the quarter-finals and could have won by more than 36-8, had Thomas Ramos not wasted eight points from the kicking tee in the first half.
To say they were 28-point winners though, Toulouse’s performance was not wholly impressive and lacked the fluency you’ve come to expect from Les Rouges et Noirs.
Clearly World Cup winner Cheslin Kolbe will be a handful as he goes into the game with four tries in his last two games. But if the Chiefs manage field position well and use their driving maul to good effect, there should be no stopping them making a first-ever Champions Cup final.
Nerves could be the only thing that gets the better of the Chiefs – and Kolbe’s trickery – and the three-point handicap is one they should comfortably cover.
Racing certainty? Non!
What odds an Exeter Chiefs v Saracens? You can get 4/5 on the nationality of the winning team being English.
The script writers would love a Saracens/Exeter match-up.
Chiefs owner Tony Rowe has been very vocal about Saracens cheating their way to multiple Premiership and European titles through their salary cap indiscretions and would love to put one over the men in black.
Saracens defied most people’s predictions, including ours, to make a mockery of Leinster’s unbeaten record and who’s to say they won’t do it again, against Racing 92?
Racing 92 are the best-attacking side in the Top 14 at present but Saracens’ defensive rearguard stands toe-to-toe with the best of them.
For many of the Saracens players, this competition is their last shot at a major title for a long time and they are showing no signs of letting up.
It would be a shock if they won but, like we said, the first all-English final since Wasps met Leicester in 2007 looks written in the stars.
Med relief for Tigers?
Meanwhile, Leicester look decent value at 7/2 to win at Toulon in the second European Challenge Cup semi-final.
Toulon are a long way from the Toulon of old as their scrappy win over Scarlets showed, and Tigers are showing signs of improvement under Steve Borthwick.
We’ve tipped Bristol to win Friday night’s tie at 4/11, plus the 4/5 on offer for the Bears to score over 28.5 points looks tasty.
