Focused Chiefs will land the double in these most testing of times

The odds on Wasps winning the Gallagher Premiership widened from 7/2 to 4/1 once the team news was announced at 12 noon today and it became apparent that two of the four frontline Wasps players missing were props, Simon McIntyre and Kieran Brookes.

Brad Shields and barnstorming back-row replacement, Alfie Barbeary, are also missing due to the Covid-19 outbreak in the Wasps camp.

But it is the disruption to the front-row that is likely to be most keenly felt with the relatively inexperienced Tom West and Jeff Toomaga-Allen having to step into the breach. Facing them in Chiefs colours will be England internationals, Alec Hepburn and Harry Williams.

The Chiefs scrum has milked more penalties at scrum-time than any other (59) in the Premiership this season and a continuation of that trend at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon will set the alarm bells ringing in the Wasps dugout.

It’s no secret that the key to stopping Exeter scoring from close-range through the forwards, as they so often do, is to keep them away from the 22 in the first place. Knowing how to stop it and stopping it from happening though is easier said than done.

As Wasps head coach Lee Blackett acknowledged last week, discipline is the key. Any soft penalties, from the scrum or elsewhere, will be kicked to the corner and, almost inevitably, will lead to a catch-and-drive try being conceded. Either this or Luke Cowan-Dickie will go for one of his old-school tap-and-go charges at the line.

Don’t be tempted

The 4/1 about Wasps might seem tempting in what is, after all, a two-horse race but you have to remind yourself who they are playing against.

Exeter Chiefs have proved time and time again this season that they are the men for the big occasion and the better bet is that Rob Baxter will have his side brilliantly prepared to land a domestic and European double.

Don’t expect any type of Barbarians-style hangover from their Heineken Champions Cup victory over Racing 92 last Saturday, the brilliant Baxter won’t allow it.

And don’t be fooled into thinking the Chiefs will have been distracted and taken their eye off the ball by Wasps’ chaotic build-up, brought about by the uncertainty over whether they’d even be able to take their place in the final or not due to positive coronavirus tests.

Baxter and his able team of lieutenants will have prepared for any scenario imaginable and although Wasps are weakened through unavailabilities, complacency is something the Chiefs won’t have allowed to creep into their tight-knit camp.

An early sting in the tale though?

Relieved to have kept their place in the final, a re-run of the 2017 classic, Wasps will play like a team with a shot to nothing and give it everything they have got.

High on emotional energy, they may well take the lead, Zach Kilbirige is as good a bet as any for the first try (14/1) but the Chiefs are too well-organised and too well-coached to come unstuck.

That emotional energy will only last for so long and the Chiefs can be expected to pull clear and win by a comfortable margin come the final whistle.