- Bristol to win (8/11, bet 365)
- Gloucester v L Irish > 54.5 pts (5/6, various)
Sale Sharks v Bristol Bears
Two heavyweight teams of very different styles come together at the AJ Bell Stadium in what is a very difficult game to call.
Had Bristol opted to rest some of their frontline players with a home semi-final all but guaranteed, then we’d have erred towards a home win.
However, the Bears travel to the north west with a matchday squad, that other than the enforced absence of Steven Luatua and Harry Randall, is virtually at full strength.
Bristol boss Pat Lam has also spoken at length about how, having led the Premiership from round 6 onwards, they are not in the mood to be overtaken.
The Bears are highly motivated, and so are Sale.
The Sharks are third on the back of a run of four games unbeaten and still have a realistic chance of catching Exeter above them and securing that coveted home tie in the play-offs. There are just four points between them and the Chiefs, who they meet in the final round, with leaders Bristol a further eight points better off.
Whistle watch
Games between two quality teams like this often come down to the bounce of the ball or a refereeing decision.
Christophe Ridley is the man in the middle for this one and he was referee when Sale somehow managed to overcome the loss of four men to the sin-bin to win at Wasps a couple of months ago.
In three-quarters of the Premiership matches he has refereed this season Ridley has given out at least one yellow card.
Sale have conceded an incredible 21 yellow cards this season but their strong sense of togetherness has, more often than not, seen them overcome adversity and pull through.
The Sharks may have one of the best records for keeping things tight when they are short handed in defence – conceding, on average, 3.3 points during such periods.
Bristol, however, are the best opponents at exploiting the extra space on the field and score an average of seven points when they are numerically up a man.
The likelihood is that if Sale’s disciplinary problems continue into this match, they will get badly punished.
Sale: 15. Luke James, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Sam James, 12. Connor Doherty, 11. Marland Yarde, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Faf de Klerk; 1. Bevan Rodd, 2. Akker van der Merwe, 3. Coenie Oosthuizen, 4. Cobus Wiese, 5. Jean-Luc du Preez, 6. Ben Curry, 7. Tom Curry, (Capt.) 8. Daniel du Preez.
Replacements: 16. Curtis Langdon 17. Valery Morozov, 18. James Harper, 19. James Phillips, 20. Cameron Neild, 21. Raffi Quirke, 22. Robert du Preez, 23. Manu Tuilagi
Bristol Bears: 15. Charles Piutau; 14. Luke Morahan, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Piers O’Conor, 11. Max Malins; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Andy Uren; 1. Jake Woolmore, 2. Jake Kerr, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Chris Vui (c), 6. Fitz Harding, 7. Ben Earl, 8. Nathan Hughes.
Replacements: 16. Harry Thacker, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 19. Ed Holmes, 20. Jake Heenan, 21. Tom Kessell, 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Siale Piutau.
Gloucester v London Irish
Gloucester have been no saints in this regard, either, conceding 15 yellow cards. But their meeting with London Irish is one we fancy them to win, whether they keep 15 men on the field or not.
The Cherry & Whites are a team on the way up, whilst the Exiles have the look of a side that can’t wait for the season’s end to come quickly enough.
Declan Kidney’s men have lost their last four and are not normally the best of travellers. With Kingsholm having a crowd in, albeit limited in numbers, their job just got a whole lot tougher.
After months of pent-up frustration, the Shed faithful will no doubt be at their most raucous and Louis Rees-Zammit et al should give them plenty to shout about in what has the makings of a high-scoring game.
Three of the last four games between the sides have gone over the total match points line of 54.5.
Gloucester: 15. Kyle Moyle, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Chris Harris, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Santiago Carreras, 10. Billy Twelvetrees, 9. Willi Heinz; 1. Val Rapava-Ruskin, 2. Jack Singleton, 3. Fraser Balmain, 4. Ed Slater, 5. Alex Craig, 6. Ruan Ackermann, 7. Lewis Ludlow (c), 8. Ben Morgan
Replacements: 16. Santiago Socino, 17. Jamal Ford-Robinson, 18. Jack Stanley, 19. Freddie Clarke, 20. Jack Clement, 21. Stephen Varney, 22. Lloyd Evans, 23. Ollie Thorley
London Irish: 15 Tom Parton, 14 James Stokes, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Phil Cokanasiga, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nic Groom, 1 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2 Agustin Creevy, 3 Lovejoy Chawatama, 4 George Nott, 5 Rob Simmons, 6 Matt Rogerson (c), 7 Ben Donnell, 8 Albert Tuisue.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Facundo Gigena, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Sean O’Brien, 21 Caolan Englefield, 22 Jacob Atkins, 23 Terrence Hepetema.
