- Northampton v Gloucester: 2nd half points over 21.5 (Evns)
- Exeter v Worcester: Warriors < 15.5 points (5/6)
- Newcastle v L Irish: Falcons -2 (10/11)
- Bath v Bristol: Bears win and under 45.5 match points (8/5) *All prices Paddy Power
Northampton v Gloucester, kick-off 2pm
Saints always have the Franklin’s Gardens pitch in mint condition and that should mitigate against the wet weather conditions ruining this game as a spectacle.
Both are attack-minded sides, and why wouldn’t they be when you consider the threats both have in the line-ups? But Saints’ individual talents have had longer to gel under Chris Boyd and the Kiwi’s work in the East Midlands is starting to bear fruit. Opposite number, George Skivington, still has some way to go before Gloucester sing from the same hymn sheet.
Saints go into the match in fifth place in the table knowing that any form of win would elevate them into the play-off positions, while Gloucester are slowly but surely climbing away from the bottom after a terrible start to the season.
Buoyed by three consecutive wins and the return to fitness of British & Irish Lion, Dan Biggar in an otherwise unchanged backline, Saints will fancy their chances of continuing their good record against the Cherry & Whites. Only once since 2013 have Gloucester won at the Gardens.
Biggar’s fellow Lion, Louis Rees-Zammit lines up on the wing for the visitors but Saints’ starting XV looks the stronger of the two.
Both benches contain impact players, with Taqele Naiyaravoro and Shaun Adendorff ready to rumble for Saints, while Ben Morgan and Willi Heinz should be no less influential as subs for Gloucester in their own unique ways, so the scoreboard should tick over nicely after the break despite the rain.
Recommended bet: Second half points >21.5 (Evns, Paddy Power)
Northampton Saints: 15 George Furbank, 14 Matt Proctor, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tom James, 1 Alex Waller, 2 Sam Matavesi, 3 Paul Hill, 4 Dave Ribbans, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 6 Tom Wood, 7 Lewis Ludlam (co-capt), 8 Teimana Harrison
Replacements: 16 James Fish, 17 Nick Auterac, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Alex Moon, 20 Shaun Adendorff, 21 Henry Taylor, 22 Fraser Dingwall, 23 Taqele Naiyaravoro
Gloucester: 15. Kyle Moyle, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Giorgi Kveseladze, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Santiago Carreras, 10. Billy Twelvetrees, 9. Charlie Chapman, 1. Val Rapava-Ruskin, 2. Jack Singleton, 3. Fraser Balmain, 4. Ed Slater, 5. Matias Alemanno, 6. Jordy Reid, 7. Lewis Ludlow (c), 8. Ruan Ackermann
Replacements: 16. Santiago Socino, 17. Jamal Ford-Robinson, 18. Bryan O’Connor, 19. Ben Morgan, 20. Jack Clement, 21. Willi Heinz, 22. George Barton, 23. Tom Seabrook.
Exeter v Worcester, kick-off 3pm
This game has the potential to highlight exactly why there is a need for jeopardy at the bottom end of the Premiership table.
Now that the fear of relegation has been removed, Worcester have shown signs of emphasising development over results in recent weeks and have suffered some heavy losses as a result.
The Premiership prides itself on its competitiveness as a league but it is hard to see Worcester laying a glove on the Chiefs.
Chiefs need to keep on winning to be assured of a favoured home semi-final in the play-offs and will look for a ruthless performance against a side for whom the end of the season cannot come quickly enough. Warriors have conceded an incredible 194 points in their last four fixtures.
Let’s not forget though that it was only there years ago when the Warriors confounded the critics and won 6-5 down at Sandy Park, and that was the season after the Chiefs had been crowned champions of England for the first time.
However, back then, Worcester had a far more experienced line-up than they do this Saturday, one which produced an epic defensive display that the current Warriors do not seem capable of, hence the 24-point handicap line.
It is a lot of points for the Chiefs to give up, especially on a day of wind and rain, but if there’s one team capable of keeping hold of a slippery pill and playing up-your-jumper rugby, it’s the Chiefs.
Recommended bet: Warriors < 15.5 points (5/6, Paddy Power)
Exeter Chiefs: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Tom O’Flaherty, 10 Joe Simmonds (C), 9 Jack Maunder, 1 Alec Hepburn, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Jonny Gray, 5 Sam Skinner, 6 Dave Ewers, 7 Jacques Vermeulen, 8 Sam Simmonds
Replacements: 16 Jack Yeandle, 17 Ben Moon, 18 Harry Williams, 19 Sean Lonsdale, 20 Richard Capstick, 21 Stu Townsend, 22 Harvey Skinner, 23 Ian Whitten
Worcester Warriors: 15 Jamie Shillcock, 14 Perry Humphreys, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Ashley Beck, 11 Alex Hearle, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Francois Hougaard, 1 Ethan Waller, 2 Niall Annett, 3 Nick Schonert, 4 Andrew Kitchener, 5 Justin Clegg, 6 Ted Hill (C), 7 Sam Lewis, 8 Matt Kvesic
Replacements: 16 Isaac Miller, 17 Marc Thomas, 18 Richard Palframan, 19 Joe Batley, 20 Kyle Hatherell, 21 GJ van Velze, 22 Gareth Simpson, 23 Harri Doel.
Newcastle v London Irish, kick-off 3pm
The result of this match would appear to be dependent on which of the sides is more capable of grinding out a win, and it’s the Falcons that get our verdict.
Irish are a team on the up, which cannot be said for Newcastle right now, but they are fallible away from home at the best of times, and a long trip to the north-east on a cold and wet miserable day is not something their large southern hemisphere contingent will particularly relish. The Exiles have not won away from home in any competition since beating Wasps at Ricoh Arena at the end of February.
Newcastle need to roll their sleeves up and dig in to avert their recent slump in form, and grittiness is one quality they have in abundance. Players like Mark Wilson and Will Welch never shirk a physical challenge and with the electric Adam Radwan back on the wing, the Falcons have a better chance of converting the few opportunities that may come their way. Ollie Hassell-Collins makes his 50th appearance for the Exiles opposite him and that should make for a fascinating match-up if the ball gets out wide.
Recommended bet: Falcons -2 (10/11, Paddy Power)
Newcastle: 15 Tom Penny, 14 Adam Radwan, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Ben Stevenson, 10 Brett Connon, 9 Louis Schreuder; 1 Trevor Davison, 2 George McGuigan, 3 Logovi’i Mulipola, 4 Greg Peterson, 5 Sean Robinson, 6 Will Welch, 7 Mark Wilson (captain), 8 Callum Chick
Replacements: 16 Jamie Blamire, 17 Kyle Cooper, 18 Mark Tampin, 19 Philip van der Walt, 20 Carl Fearns, 21 Sam Stuart, 22 Joel Hodgson, 23 George Wacokecoke
London Irish: 15 Tom Parton, 14 Ben Loader, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Phil Cokanasiga, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nick Phipps, 1 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2 Agustin Creevy, 3 Lovejoy Chawatama, 4 George Nott, 5 Rob Simmons, 6 Matt Rogerson (c), 7 Blair Cowan, 8 Albert Tuisue
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Facundo Gigena, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Chunya Munga, 20 Ben Donnell, 21 Nic Groom 22 Jacob Atkins, 23 James Stokes.
Bath v Bristol, kick-off 4.30pm
Bath’s latch-drive couldn’t unlock the door of the Montpellier defence in last weekend’s disappointing European Challenge Cup exit, and there’s no reason to think the tactic will be any more successful against a Bears side whose ability to protect their try line at close quarters has been evident in big games against the likes of Saracens, before their demotion, and Exeter.
Bath still seem incapable of getting the best out of their star-studded backline whereas Bristol can strike from anywhere. Not even a wet pitch at the Recreation Ground will faze the league’s leaders who have named a line-up oozing with class.
Semi Radradra, Siale Piutau and Callum Sheedy return to a backline featuring threats such as Charles Piutau, Luke Morahan and Max Malins. With his sniping runs and support play, scrum-half Andy Uren is no less important to the cause and, at 7/2, he’s a decent price to be an anytime try-scorer, although a glut of tries is improbable given the conditions.
Tom de Glanville will make his return from injury for the home side and the homegrown full-back can expect a busy afternoon chasing kicks as well as runners.
Recommended bet: Bristol and Under 45.5 match points (8/5, Paddy Power)
Bath: 15. Tom de Glanville, 14. Anthony Watson, 13. Max Clark, 12. Cameron Redpath, 11. Will Muir, 10. Orlando Bailey, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Juan Schoeman, 2. Tom Dunn, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Josh McNally ©, 5. Elliott Stooke 6. Josh Bayliss, 7. Miles Reid, 8. Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16. Jacques du Toit, 17. Jamie Bhatti, 18. Christian Judge, 19. Charlie Ewels, 20. Tom Ellis, 21. Will Chudley, 22. Rhys Priestland, 23. Alex Gray.
Bristol Bears: 15. Charles Piutau; 14. Luke Morahan, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Siale Piutau, 11. Max Malins; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Andy Uren; 1. Yann Thomas, 2. Bryan Byrne, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Chris Vui, 6. Steven Luatua (c), 7. Ben Earl, 8. Nathan Hughes.
Replacements: 16. Jake Kerr, 17. Jake Woolmore, 18. John Afoa, 19. Ed Holmes, 20. Jake Heenan, 21. Tom Kessell, 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Alapati Leiua.
