Leicester v London Irish, 7.45pm, BT Sport 1
At the midway stage of the Premiership season, the Exiles are seventh, five points and two places above the Tigers.
Leicester fans might not know it but Wayne Barnes’ appointment for Friday night’s visit of London Irish is good news if recent history is anything to go by.
Barnes, who is closing on a century of Tests as a referee, has stood in the middle for five Premiership matches this season, and the home side has won them all.
Four of the five were by a margin of seven points or less – including Leicester’s 36-31 win over Bath – with the only anomaly being the 48-3 blow-out Bristol enjoyed at Bath’s expense.
In a fixture when the home side tends to come out on top more often than not, this further reinforces the belief that the Tigers will just have enough in their locker to edge a tight contest.
At the halfway point of the campaign, both sides have managed 21 tries at an average of just under two per game so a low-scoring affair looks in prospect.
The previous two meetings at Welford Road certainly ended up that way with Tigers winning 13-7 last August and 19-15 back in January 2018.
Throw in the fact that Irish have only won once at the ground since 2003, and history and the stats are very much against them building on last week’s terrific win at Wasps.
Irish’s problem this season has been giving the opposition a head start. Of the 22 tries they have conceded, 13 have come before half-time. And the points conceded total before and after half-time is split 113/73. The percentage of points conceded by Irish before the break is only equalled by Sale Sharks, the rest tend to prosper in the second half.
Factor in Leicester’s fondness for kicking first-half penalties – 15 out of 23 during the first 40 – and it’s easy to see how Irish will have to launch another second-half comeback if they are to get anything out of this game.
With a new settled backline, marshalled by the experienced half-back pairing of Nick Phipps and Paddy Jackson, they are clearly starting to function better as an attacking unit.
But even with a host of players still unavailable through England commitments, injuries and suspension, we believe the Tigers can just about hold on for a hard-earned victory.
Steve Borthwick’s side are defensively dogged and Freddie Steward’s return at full-back can only improve them. To only concede three points when it was 15 v 15 against ruthless Bristol last week takes some doing.
Tigers’ tally of eight yellow cards is the second-highest in the league but even if they add to that tally tonight, the Exiles don’t tend to punish teams when they have more men on the pitch.
Recommended bet: Double result of Leicester-Leicester (13/10, Paddy Power).
Leicester: 15. Freddie Steward, 14. Kobus Van Wyk, 13. Matías Moroni, 12. Matt Scott, 11. Guy Porter, 10. Zack Henry, 9. Richard Wigglesworth, 1. Luan de Bruin, 2. Tom Youngs, 3. Dan Cole, 4. Calum Green, 5. Tomás Lavanini, 6. Harry Wells, 7. Tommy Reffell, 8. Cyle Brink.
Replacements: 16. Charlie Clare, 17. Nephi Leatigaga, 18. Joe Heyes, 19. Ollie Chessum, 20. Luke Wallace, 21. Jack Van Poortvliet, 22. Johnny McPhillips, 23. Kini Murimurivalu.
London Irish: 15. Tom Parton, 14. Ben Loader, 13. Curtis Rona, 12. Terrence Hepetema, 11. Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Nick Phipps, 1. Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2. Agustin Creevy, 3. Lovejoy Chawatama, 4. Steve Mafi, 5. Rob Simmons, 6. Matt Rogerson ©, 7. Blair Cowan, 8. Albert Tuisue.
Replacements: 16. Matt Cornish, 17. Allan Dell, 18. Ollie Hoskins, 19. Chunya Munga, 20. George Nott, 21. Ben Donnell, 22. Ben Meehan, 23. Will Joseph.
Sale Sharks v Newcastle Falcons, 8pm, BT Sport Extra
A win for Newcastle would see them replace Sale in the top four.
The bookies have reacted to Sale’s defiant victory over double champions Exeter by making them eight-point favourites, and looking at the respective team line-ups, you’d have to think they’re right. Our only worry is that the Sharks have a tendency to let you down when giving up this many points on the handicap.
Also, Newcastle conceded, on average, the fewest penalties in the Premiership and if they’re equally well-disciplined tonight, that would negate one of the Sharks’ biggest strengths, AJ MacGinty’s kicking.
Just under half of Sale’s points this season have come from goal-kicking (conversions and penalties), most of them from the accurate boot of the US Eagle.
Jono Ross’ ban for picking up three yellow cards robs the Sharks of some on-field leadership and while the Falcons have been good in keeping on the right side of the referee, Sale have not. While Newcastle give away the least, Sale average the most penalties in the league, which could potentially give Newcastle a foothold in the match – if Brent Connon can locate his kicking radar.
Connon simply has to improve Newcastle’s terrible goal-kicking percentage of 60% if the Falcons are going to pull off an away win as impressive as the last time they were refereed by Andrew Jackson – the 27-17 win at Wasps in round 3.
With an unchanged and quality-looking backline on display – Faf de Klerk is captain and the side is always stringer when he’s paired with MacGinty, Sale might not have to be so reliant on threes and twos for their points.
Fresh from his wonder try in the 25-22 win against Harlequins last time out, the fit-again Callum Chick leads the visitors out as they look to do the double over their northern rivals after winning 15-13 with a last-minute Toby Flood try in round two.
We expect this to be another low-scoring encounter with the Sharks taking the honours on the basis that they are almost at full strength, whilst Newcastle are not, and are at home.
Recommended bet: Newcastle <16.5 points (5/6, Paddy Power)
Sale: 15. Luke James, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Sam James, 12. Sam Hill, 11. Marland Yarde, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Faf de Klerk (Capt.); 1. Bevan Rodd, 2. Curtis Langdon, 3. Will Griff John, 4. Josh Beaumont, 5. Lood De Jager, 6. Cobus Wiese, 7. Sam Dugdale, 8. Daniel du Preez.
Replacements: 16. Akker van der Merwe, 17. Ross Harrison, 18. Coenie Oosthuizen, 19. Jean-Pierre du Preez, 20. Cameron Neild, 21. Raffi Quirke, 22. Robert du Preez, 23. Simon Hammersley
Newcastle: 15. Tom Penny, 14. Mateo Carreras, 13. Matias Orlando, 12. Luther Burrell, 11. Ben Stevenson, 10. Brett Connon, 9. Louis Schreuder, 1. Trevor Davison, 2. George McGuigan, 3. Logovi’i Mulipola, 4. Greg Peterson, 5. Marco Fuser, 6. Rob Farrar, 7. John Hardie, 8. Callum Chick (captain).
Replacements: 16. Jamie Blamire, 17. Adam Brocklebank, 18. Mark Tampin, 19. Darren Barry, 20. Connor Collett, 21. Michael Young, 22. Joel Matavesi, 23. Alex Tait
