Rugby betting tips and predictions for Saturday’s fixtures in Round 21 of the 2020/21 Gallagher Premiership season.
Leicester Tigers v Bristol Bears (kick-off 3pm):
- Recommended bet: Tigers to be winning at H/T (8/5, Unibet); Tigers to score 11.5pts + in the first half (4/5, Paddy Power)
- Predicted score: Leicester 20-26 Bristol
Two-thirds of the 45 penalty goals that Leicester have successfully kicked this season have come before half-time, showing a preference to build a score rather than kick to the corner and put their foot on the throat of the opposition from the first whistle. Tigers prefer to inflict their wounds bit by bit (or bite by bite!) and cause a slow death.
Given that Bristol have conceded more first-half penalties than any other Premiership side other than Wasps, and have been slow out of the blocks on the scoring front in the last month (they have scored just three first-half tries in their last four), we reckon it is worth backing the Tigers to be marginally in front at half-time.
The 4/5 (Paddy Power) about Leicester scoring 11.5 points in the first half interests us. At the end of the day, that’s only one converted try and a couple of penalties. Johnny McPhillips may not be in the same class as a kicker as George Ford but his success rate of 79% in all competitions this season (he has only missed three of his 14 attempts at goal) is not to be sniffed at.
Whilst both these sides tend to split thier tries fairly evenly between the first and second halves, we think the 4/5 Unibet are offering for the second half to be the highest scoring half is a decent shout considering the strikepower on the respective benches. With Nemani Nadolo and Jasper Wiese amongst the replacements for the home side and Ioan Lloyd and Ben Earl held back in reserve for the visitors, the scoreboard should tick along nicely in the second 40, especially as the teams tire in the heat.
Teams:
Leicester Tigers: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Kini Murimurivalu, 10 Johnny McPhillips, 9 Ben Youngs; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Tom Youngs (c), 3 Dan Cole, 4 Harry Wells, 5 Cameron Henderson, 6 George Martin, 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Hanro Liebenberg
Replacements: 16 Julián Montoya, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Tomás Lavanini, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 Zack Henry, 23 Nemani Nadolo
Bristol Bears: 15. Max Malins; 14. Piers O’Conor, 13. Semi Radradra, 12. Siale Piutau, 11. Henry Purdy; 10. Callum Sheedy, 9. Harry Randall; 1. Yann Thomas, 2. Will Capon, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Dave Attwood, 5. Chris Vui, 6. Steven Luatua (c), 7. Dan Thomas, 8. Nathan Hughes
Replacements: 16. Jake Kerr, 17. Jake Woolmore, 18. John Afoa, 19. Joe Joyce, 20. Ben Earl, 21. Andy Uren, 22. Ioan Lloyd, 23. Alapati Leiua
Newcastle v Worcester Warriors (kick-off 3pm)
- Recommended bet: Match points <57.5 (10/11, Boyle Sports)
- Prediction: Newcastle 28 Worcester 19
Normally at this time of year this fixture would be your classic relegation ‘eight-pointer’. However, with the jeopardy of the drop removed it is now a by-and-large meaningless encounter that could go one way or the other, although our feeling is that the Falcons will be the more motivated of the two teams.
Worcester have been knocking at the door in search of that elusive first win since the opening day of the season, and with the classy half-back pairing of Francois Hougaard and Duncan Weir finally reunited, they will go to Kingston Park with high hopes of getting a result.
Verdict: Newcastle to win the arm wrestle and come out on top.
Teams:
Newcastle Falcons: 15. Joel Hodgson, 14. Adam Radwan, 13. Matias Orlando, 12. Luther Burrell, 11. George Wacokecoke, 10. Brett Connon, 9. Louis Schreuder; 1. Adam Brocklebank, 2. George McGuigan, 3. Trevor Davison, 4. Greg Peterson, 5. Sean Robinson, 6. Will Welch, 7. Mark Wilson (c), 8. Callum Chick
Replacements: 16. Jamie Blamire, 17. Kyle Cooper, 18. Rodney Ah You, 19. Philip van der Walt, 20. Carl Fearns, 21. Michael Young, 22. Chidera Obonna, 23. Alex Tait.
Worcester Warriors: 15. Jamie Shillcock, 14. Perry Humphreys, 13. Ollie Lawrence, 12. Francois Venter, 11. Noah Heward, 10. Duncan Weir, 9. Francois Hougaard; 1. Marc Thomas, 2. Beck Cutting, 3. Jay Tyack, 4. Ted Hill (c), 5. Graham Kitchener, 6. Tom Dodd, 7. Sam Lewis, 8. Matt Kvesic
Replacements: 16. Niall Annett, 17. Ethan Waller, 18. Nick Schonert, 19. Justin Clegg, 20. GJ van Velze, 21. Gareth Simpson, 22. Alex Hearle, 23. Harri Doel.
London Irish v Wasps (kick-off 4.30pm)
- Recommended bet: London Irish >3.5 tries (4/6, Paddy Power); >3.5 2nd half tries (8/13, Paddy Power)
- Prediction: London Irish 34 Wasps 30
London Irish go into this game on the back of a six-match losing run in all competitions, conceding over 200 points in the process.
Wasps, meanwhile, are on a lose one, win one streak, and if this match follows the script, they will put the disappointment of last weekend’s 30-25 defeat to Northampton behind them and will come out with a ‘W’ against their name on Saturday.
With 4,000 fans cheering them on, however, Irish will fancy their chances against a side whose defensive lapses have been plain for all to see.
Over the last two months, Wasps have conceded on average nearly four tries per match and Irish have enough about them in attack to make them pay again.
Teams:
London Irish: 15 Tom Parton, 14 James Stokes, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Terrence Hepetema, 11 Ollie Hassell-Collins, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Nic Groom, 1 Will Goodrick-Clarke, 2 Agustin Creevy, 3 Ollie Hoskins, 4 Adam Coleman, 5 Rob Simmons, 6 Matt Rogerson, 7 Blair Cowan (c), 8 Albert Tuisue.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u, 17 Facundo Gigena, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 George Nott, 20 Sean O’Brien, 21 Jack Cooke, 22 Rory Brand, 23 Jacob Atkins.
Wasps: 15 Charlie Atkinson, 14 Marcus Watson, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Michael Le Bourgeois, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Tom West, 2 Gabriel Oghre, 3 Kieran Brookes, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 James Gaskell, 6 Brad Shields (c), 7 Thomas Young, 8 Tom Willis
Replacements: 16 Tom Cruse, 17 Simon McIntyre, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 Tim Cardall, 20 Sione Vailanu, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Rob Miller.
