Bath v Northampton
How many times have we said Bath look stronger on paper only to be let down? Too many!
This is an important game for Bath with Heineken Champions Cup rugby still not guaranteed.
Stuart Hooper’s perennial under-achievers go into the match occupying the eighth and final qualification spot but there is no margin for error with Newcastle still able to catch them.
Bath will want to give their long-suffering fans something to cheer about, and all the big guns are largely present, to hopefully deliver a much-needed ‘W’.
Confidence in the blue, black and whites is fairly shallow though, as we’ve already said, and that’s been reflected in the handicap market with Bath -10 before the team were announced at midday on Friday, but now regarded as just seven-point favourites.
Congrats if you were on Saints +10 as that looked good value considering the team Chris Boyd has put out: it certainly won’t disgrace the Saints jersey.
Saints will still be emotionally charged too, following their brilliant effort against Chiefs, whilst Bath have had a week off due to their Gloucester cancellation.
In their last two outings, both teams have found points easy to come by in the first half, averaging 17 apiece, so the line of 27.5 points (Paddy Power are quoting 4/5 for Overs) might be worth looking at.
When you consider Saints are three places better off in the table, they look overpriced at 13/5 (William Hill) to win the match outright.
Bath: 15. Tom de Glanville, 14. Anthony Watson, 13. Jonathan Joseph, 12. Max Ojomoh, 11. Joe Cokanasiga, 10. Rhys Priestland, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Beno Obano, 2. Jacques du Toit, 3. Christian Judge, 4. Josh McNally, 5. Charlie Ewels ©, 6. Miles Reid, 7. Sam Underhill, 8. Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16. Tom Doughty, 17. Juan Schoeman 18. Henry Thomas, 19. Will Spencer, 20. Zach Mercer, 21. Josh Bayliss, 22. Will Chudley, 23. Orlando Bailey.
Northampton: 15. Tommy Freeman; 14 Tom Collins, 13 Fraser Dingwall, 12 Rory Hutchinson, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro; 10 James Grayson, 9 Alex Mitchell, 1 Nick Auterac, 2 Mike Haywood, 3 Paul Hill, 4 Alex Coles, 5 Alex Moon, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Lewis Ludlam (capt), 8 Tom Wood
Replacements: 16 James Fish, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Api Ratuniyarawa, 20 Ollie Newman, 21 Connor Tupai, 22 Matt Proctor, 23 Josh Gillespie.
Exeter v Sale
It was Sale’s defeat of Exeter back in February that ignited their run to the play-offs and they head to Devon full of confidence and with momentum behind them.
A record eight-match winning run in the Premiership has been borne out of determination, togetherness and no little skill, with an inspirational figurehead in Alex Sanderson steering the ship.
Now that Exeter’s hopes of usurping Bristol at the top of the Premiership have, in all probability, been extinguished by the cancellation of the Bears’ game against London Irish, nothing is riding on this outcome other than psychological points. Sure, Sale could take second place off Exeter but can you envisage them getting the bonus point win they need whilst also denying the Chiefs anything from the fixture?
The teams look almost certain to meet again in a week’s time, as the second and third-placed teams involved in the first of the semi-finals, so it will be interesting to see how much they are prepared to give away, tactically, in what is effectively a dead rubber.
For us, Sale are the team that need to maintain their rhythm the most and we can’t see them holding anything back in reserve, which was evident – even before the Bristol-London Irish cancellation – in the selection of their kingpin half-back duo, Faf de Klerk and AJ MacGinty.
Exeter are a team that likes to know what they need to do, and they like to stick to the script laid out by Rob Baxter. The situation at the top of the table changing on the eve of the match, with the Bears set to be awarded five points, is unlikely to sit well with the defending champions and we feel the Sharks can go down there and do a job.
To get the win might be a big ask, although the 18/5 (Betfred) is tempting. With an 11-point head start, though, they look worth backing.
Exeter Chiefs: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Alex Cuthbert, 13. Henry Slade, 12. Ollie Devoto, 11. Tom O’Flaherty, 10. Joe Simmonds (c), 9. Jack Maunder, 1. Alec Hepburn, 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3. Harry Williams, 4. Sam Skinner, 5. Jonny Hill, 6. Dave Ewers, 7. Jannes Kirsten, 8. Sam Simmonds
Replacements: 16. Jack Yeandle, 17. Ben Moon, 18. Marcus Street, 19. Sean Lonsdale, 20. Richard Capstick, 21. Stu Townsend, 22. Harvey Skinner, 23. Ian Whitten
Sale Sharks: 15. Simon Hammersley, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Sam James, 12. Manu Tuilagi, 11. Arron Reed, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Faf de Klerk, 1. Ross Harrison, 2. Akker van der Merwe, 3. Coenie Oosthuizen, 4. Cobus Wiese, 5. Jean-Luc du Preez, 6. Cameron Neild, 7. Tom Curry (c) 8. Daniel du Preez.
Replacements: 16. Curtis Langdon, 17. Bevan Rodd, 18. WillGriff John, 19. James Phillips, 20. Ben Curry, 21. Will Cliff, 22. Robert du Preez, 23. Rohan Janse van Rensburg.
Now that London Irish and Gloucester’s games have fallen by the wayside, Newcastle are the only team outside of the top eight who can move into the Heineken Champions Cup qualification places at the eleventh hour.
While the Falcons won’t lack for incentives, it is hard to look past a good win for a Quins side restored to full strength. With Danny Care and Marcus Smith coming back in at 9 and 10, and other leading lights back in the fold, Quins will relish the chance to put last weekend’s hammering at Sale behind them with a convincing performance.
Quins love playing with the sun on their backs and the tempo that they like to play at should be too much for a Newcastle side that is better at playing the percentages than giving it a lash. Quins, however, will be mindful of the threat that Adam Radwan poses, the fit-again winger was amongst the tries last weekend and gives the Falcons an extra dimension in attack.
Falcons coaches Dean Richards and Nick Easter return to their old Stoop stomping ground and you can bet that their side won’t ship 70 points as they did on their last away trip, to Exeter. The team lining up this weekend is far superior to the one humbled by the Chiefs but, equally, Quins will want to finish on a high and have the firepower to do so.
Recommended bet: Quins to win by 11-20 points (11/4, Paddy Power)
Harlequins: 15. Tyrone Green, 14. Louis Lynagh, 13. Joe Marchant, 12. Ben Tapuai, 11. Aaron Morris, 10. Marcus Smith, 9. Danny Care; 1. Joe Marler, 2. Scott Baldwin, 3. Wilco Louw, 4. Matt Symons, 5. Dino Lamb, 6. Tom Lawday, 7. Jack Kenningham, 8. Alex Dombrandt (Capt.)
Replacements: 16. Joe Gray, 17. Santiago Garcia Botta, 18. Will Collier, 19. Hugh Tizard, 20. James Chisholm, 21. Martin Landajo, 22. Luke Northmore, 23. Cadan Murley.
Newcastle: 15 Joel Hodgson, 14 Adam Radwan, 13 George Wacokecoke, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Brett Connon, 9 Louis Schreuder; 1 Adam Brocklebank, 2 George McGuigan, 3 Trevor Davison, 4 Greg Peterson, 5 Sean Robinson, 6 Will Welch, 7 Mark Wilson (captain), 8 Callum Chick
Replacements: 16 Jamie Blamire, 17 Kyle Cooper, 18 Rodney Ah You, 19 Philip van der Walt, 20 Carl Fearns, 21 Michael Young, 22 Pete Lucock, 23 Alex Tait.
Wasps v Leicester
Recommended bet: Over 6.5 tries (8/13)
Wasps: 15 Rob Miller, 14 Marcus Watson, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Michael Le Bourgeois, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Dan Robson; 1 Simon McIntyre, 2 Tommy Taylor, 3 Kieran Brookes, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 James Gaskell, 6 Tom Willis, 7 Brad Shields (c), 8 Sione Vailanu
Replacements: 16 Gabriel Oghre, 17 Ben Harris, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 Tim Cardall, 20 Alfie Barbeary, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Juan de Jongh.
Leicester Tigers: 15 Zack Henry, 14 Freddie Steward, 13 Matt Scott, 12 Dan Kelly, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Johnny McPhillips, 9 Jack Van Poortvliet; 1 Ellis Genge (c), 2 Julián Montoya, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Harry Wells, 5 Cameron Henderson, 6 George Martin, 7 Hanro Liebenberg, 8 Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16 Charlie Clare, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Tomás Lavanini, 20 Ollie Chessum, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Matías Moroni, 23 Kini Murimurivalu
