Bristol Bears v Exeter Chiefs on Friday evening is a tricky contest to kick off this weekend’s action from a betting point of view as there have been some titanic tussles between the teams in recent times with results going either way.
Until last season’s 40-33 reverse at Bristol, though, Ashton Gate had been a happy hunting ground for the Chiefs with Rob Baxter’s men winning on their previous four visits there.
And remember, it was in Bristol where the Chiefs’ Premiership adventure first began back in 2010, albeit at the Memorial Stadium.
Looking at the teams and the stats, we feel Exeter have the edge which is reflected in the handicap betting with Chiefs -3.
In many ways, the teams cancel each other.
Both have scored over 100 points this season, both have conceded 50 points or less, and both go into the match on the back of their first defeat after kicking off with three straight wins.
And any differences would appear to be nullified by other factors. For example, while Exeter have conceded eight more penalties than the Bears (50 to 42), Bristol’s goalkicking success is not as good which suggests they might not convert that potential advantage into points.
One thing that does stand out, though, is the amount of tries that Exeter score and concede in the first half compared to the second. 10 of their 13 tries this season have come before the break and, on the flipside, all but three of their total of 14 tries conceded have come after the break.
Bristol’s stats in this respect are split pretty much 50:50 either way so backing Exeter to win the first half (8/11, various) makes a lot of sense.
The Chiefs will also be pleased to see that Luke Morahan hasn’t made the matchday 23 for the hosts. The Aussie loves scoring against Exeter at Ashton Gate – he’s done it in each of the last four matches there.
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Bath have yet to open their account for the season under new head coach Johann van Graan, the South African having promised a back-to-basics approach of solid set-piece and defence.
Clearly, both are still a major work in progress with Bath still prone to conceding scrum penalties and gifting points to the opposition.
For a Gloucester team with an abundance of attacking talent and the only 100% scrum on their own put in, Saturday’s West Country derby at The Rec should be a riotous affair.
Getting up to the 64 unanswered points they managed at home to Bath last season might be a big ask fro Gloucester, but with Bath missing so many frontline players through injury and being forced to field more untried combinations, there should be holes aplenty ifor them to exploit.
For Bath, the appointment of referee Tom Foley spells trouble, too, as he likes to promote a fast-paced game and tends to officiate in matches that produce a lot of points (an average of 59 per game from his four matches so far).
With the weather set to be fair in Bath on Saturday, we can’t see this changing unless Bath can keep down the number of visits into their 22 from Gloucester.
The Cherry & Whites have made joint-lowest number of visits on average across the Premiership this season but there should be an uptick in this area against a Bath side that still lacks physicality.
The forlorn basement dwellers are the only team that gets stopped before the gain line more than they cross it when in possession of the ball.
Clearly, if they are to produce the most spectacular of wins, that needs to change and they need to win the battle of the breakdown, which they fell well short of doing in their last two home games against Sale and Wasps.
Gloucester don’t have breakdown kings of the ilk of the Currys or the Willis’ but they should have enough about them elsewhere to easily overcome the -9 against them on the handicap (10/11, Paddy Power) and win by 16-20 points (15/2, Betfred).
More to follow …
