This is the first of three Premiership rounds where Gallagher Premiership teams will be missing their England stars, so it will be intriguing to see which of the teams is most affected.
Taking a look at this weekend’s games, Gloucester haven’t lost as many of their stars as opponents Exeter but Val Rapava-Ruskin’s call-up deprives them of one of the league’s most in-form players, regardless of position.
Exeter’s main losses are Henry Slade and Jack Nowell.
It is also a time of year when the change in seasons comes into play. With matches normally played in inclement weather as the clocks go back, this can affect the scoring ability of teams.
However, having taken a look at last season, the drop-off in points in the Autumn isn’t exactly what we’d call a fall.
The average number of points per match in the first six rounds last year was 50 points. But when the November Internationals came long, this figure only dipped ever so slightly, to 49.
This season’s average currently stands at 55 points per game with attacks holding sway over defences.
However, we don’t think tonight’s game will get up to that mark. Last season’s corresponding encounter was played this time last year and ended in a 16-13 win for the Chiefs, and this has the feel of another gritty, tight encounter.
Our recommendation would be to go UNDER 50.5 points (10/11, Paddy Power).
On the face of it, the two fixtures on Saturday – Harlequins v London Irish and Northampton v Bristol – look to be ones where points should come freely unless the forecasted early morning rain fails to clear up in time.
However, Quins v Irish games haven’t typically gone north of 60 points, in the last few seasons at least. Plus , with many of the tried and trusted combinations not on show, there could be a bit of a breakdown in communication and a lack of fluency. This can work both ways, of course, and there could be more holes than normal defensively.
Irish are unbeaten in their last three visits to the Stoop to play Harlequins in all competitions, and still have a lot of their main players to hand, either in the starting line-up or, in the case of Agustin Creevy, for example, on the bench. So giving them a 10-point start looks on the generous side.
The 7/2 Coral are offering for an Irish win is tempting, although it is worth pointing out that Quins being without Marcus Smith isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to the match result.
Quins only won 6 of the 11 league games that he started this season (50%) and only two out of four this season (50%). Their success rate without him at 10 last season was 69%.
Northampton v Bristol is a game between two infuriatingly under-performing sides. With the talent at their disposal both should be doing better.
While Bristol have won twice on their last three visits to Franklin’s Gardens, their away form as a whole is pretty wretched and we expect Saints to find a response to their inept showing at Bath last week and bounce back with a much-needed win (Saints to win, 20/21, Bet365).
Lewis Ludlam’s absence is obviously not ideal but in Sam Graham, Saints have a player in the back row desperate to show Bristol they were wrong to release him at the start of his career.
As long as the weather holds, both sets of backs look primed to unleash their firepower and we could be in for a free-for-all.
Keep an eye out for the UNDER/OVERS market.
As for Sunday’s solitary fixture, it says a lot about Sale’s strength in depth that they look less severely affected by England call-ups, despite missing six players, than Sarries. +9 is now +8 but still should be enough.
Sale have visited Saracens on 24 previous occasions in Premiership Rugby and only managed a solitary victory: 40-32 at Vicarage Road in September 2005.
So history tells us a win may be beyond them in this top-of-the-table clash but a losing bonus point is within their grasp.
Sale Sharks +8 (10/11, Paddy Power)
