- Chiefs by 11-20 points (13/5)
The Bath team that was hammered 57-20 down at Exeter in the final round of games before the lockdown is unrecognisable to the one that has lost just once since the restart.
That run of form, in which the side has finally discovered its attacking edge, has taken Bath into the play-offs for the first time since they reached the final of the Gallagher Premiership in 2015.
Stuart Hooper’s side are effectively on a shot to nothing because nobody beyond the most one-eyed Bath fan expected them to continue their interest in the competition beyond Round 22.
So hats off to Hooper and Neal Hatley for the way they have turned things around.
Upfront, the front-row trinity of Beno Obano, Tom Dunn and Will Stuart will give as good as they get in the tight exchanges and the loose and, on paper, there’s not much to separate the backlines.
Big-game experience
However, Exeter have the edge when it comes to big-game experience. Bath’s frailties in this respect came back to almost hurt them in Round 22 when they let a 17-3 lead slip and drew 17-17. Had Sale not suffered a Covid-19 outbreak, it’s likely that their race would have been run.
If only because of the sheer bloody-mindedness of the Chiefs and their hierarchy, added to their ability to perform when it matters most, the Chiefs are rightly short-priced favourites at a best price of 2/7.
It could be a bit closer than many people think but Bath will have to play out of their skins and hope Exeter have an off-day to come away with a victory.
While the first semi-final between Wasps and Bristol is likely to feature beautiful running lines and lots of metres made, this match-up between two power-packed sides is about who wins the battle of the inches.
When it comes down to it, the Chiefs probably just want it that bit more.
Chiefs by 11-20 points is 13/5 with Paddy Power.
