Will the Gallagher Premiership semi-finals follow the form book?

To say that semi-finals are tight, tense affairs is a bit of a misnomer when it comes to Premiership rugby.

The six semi-final ties since Exeter got the better of Saracens by two points and Wasps beat Leicester by the narrowest of margins in the 2016/17 season, have been one-sided with three scores or more between the teams.

As much as we’d like to see some last-minute drama from an entertainment point of view, the semi-finals of English rugby’s elite club competition are a punters friend in terms of their predictability.

In the entire 17-year history of the play-offs, only five away teams have won. Saracens were the last in 2015 when they beat Northampton Saints 29-24 at Franklin’s Gardens.

Last season Wasps crushed Bristol 47-24 and Exeter outclassed Bath 35-6, and to be honest, it is hard to see either home side coming unstuck this weekend.

Given the way matches have been played towards the end of the season and with Saturday’s forecast to be dry, following Friday’s downpours, there could be a couple more blow-outs.

Believe in Bris

Having topped the Premiership table for the first time, Pat Lam’s Bristol have been rewarded with a home tie against a Harlequins side that has only won one of its four previous semi-finals.

Quins have picked the same team by and large all season and understand each other’s game so well. The 8-9-10 axis of Alex Dombrandt, Danny Care and Marcus Smith is arguably the most exciting in the league.

It is a match that promises so much from an attacking spectacle, and over 51.5 match points looks distinctly possible (10/11, various). 

While Bristol will do well to keep Quins to two tries or less, the Bears will have learnt the lessons from last year, when they gifted Wasps so many points by being too adventurous, and should be far too street-wise to fall short again.

Chiefs won’t get the chop

Only defending champions Exeter scored more tries in the regular season than Quins (93 as opposed to 89), with newly-anointed Player of the Year Sam Simmonds contributing a record 20 tries from his 21 appearances.

Sale are the side tasked with stopping the No.8 and the Chiefs’ juggernaut in returning to Twickenham, and defensively they have very few peers. Alex Sanderson’s side have conceded a miserly 42 tries, just two more than Exeter who are the best in the league.

Sam Skinner and Dave Ewers’ ban is a blow to the home side, particularly at the breakdown, where the Curry twins, Tom and Ben, will be all over the ball like a rash.

If Sale can get on top there, find some sort of parity in the set-piece, and overcome the loss of in-form AJ MacGinty to injury, they could be in with a shout of rewriting injury.

Let’s not forget that it was only a week ago when they scared the life out of Chiefs in leading 19-3 only to be beaten by a point after a stirring comeback by the home side.

But there are a lot of ifs in there, and the safe bet is to side with the Chiefs who have been there and done it all before.

Sale won’t go down without a fight but a Chiefs win by +13 points is not unrealistic (13/10, Paddy Power).