Northampton Saints v Bath, Frankin’s Gardens, Sunday 28 February, kick-off 1 pm
- Saints by 1-12 points (9/5, Paddy Power)
Neither of these sides hangs on to the ball for long. Bath average the least amount of possession, while Saints are next, with another average of sub 16 minutes, so it’ll be fascinating to see how this one plays out.
Will it be a case of four or five phases and then kick if nothing else is on, or will both teams abandon their usual philosophy and look to keep hold of the pill for longer? What course of action they take will have implications on the total points market line (52.5 points).
If they stay true to type and the match follows recent history, the recommendation is to go lower. In the last 10 league meetings between the sides, the match has produced a half-century of points on just two occasions and the average points per match is 36.
So which team will get the result?
Neither team has a great lineout at present and Bath have been forced to play flanker Tom Ellis in the second row. Securing good set-piece ball might be a problem for both teams in this area but at scrum time Bath have the edge.
If Saints get on the wrong side of referee Ian Tempest, sharp-shooter Rhys Priestland will be ready to punish them from the tee. Saints on the other hand, have struggled for consistency in front of goal, missing a quarter of their attempts.
On a beautiful, Spring-like day, however, you’d back them to run in a few tries and maybe even get a bonus point against the team with the worst defensive record in the league.
Bath have the players to counter punch – Will Muir is on fire at the moment – but they’re still too overly reliant on Priestland’s boot.
A win of between 1-12 points for the home side, with a score of around 27-16, is predicted (9/5, Paddy Power).
Northampton Saints: 15 Tommy Freeman, 14 Matt Proctor, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 George Furbank, 9 Tom James, 1 Nick Auterac, 2 Sam Matavesi, 3 Ehren Painter, 4 David Ribbans, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 6 Nick Isiekwe, 7 Lewis Ludlam (c), 8 Tom Wood
Replacements: 16 Reece Marshall, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Alex Moon, 20 Alex Coles, 21 Henry Taylor, 22 Harry Mallinder, 23 Ollie Sleightholme.
Bath Rugby: 15. Tian Schoeman, 14. Semesa Rokodoguni, 13. Jonathan Joseph, 12. Josh Matavesi, 11. Will Muir, 10. Rhys Priestland, 9. Will Chudley; 1. Juan Schoeman, 2. Jack Walker, 3. Christian Judge, 4. Tom Ellis, 5. Elliot Stooke, 6. Josh Bayliss (C), 7. Miles Reid, 8. Zach Mercer.
Replacements: 16. Tom Dunn, 17. Jamie Bhatti, 18. Henry Thomas, 19. Ewan Richards, 20. Ethan Staddon, 21. Ben Spencer, 22. Max Clark, 23. Ruaridh McConnochie
