For the first time in Premiership history a player from Gloucester and a player from Saracens finished top of the Gallagher Premiership regular season try-scoring charts in 2019/20. Remarkable really when you think of the calibre of players to have played for both clubs, plus the number of times they have finished at the summit of the table between them.
Ben Earl’s tries were split between Saracens and his loan club, Bristol Bears, while all of Ollie Thorley’s 11 came in the Cherry & White of Gloucester. Both players are now England caps but when you take a look at the list of top try-scorers in the play-off era (see table), none of them could be classed as England regulars at the time.
So, that’s the first – and obvious – tip. Steer clear of England internationals, as they will be away from their club for too long. Jonny May and Thorley are joint-favourites at 6/1.
Second, of the 21 players who have won the accolade as top try-scorer (the honour has been shared for the last three seasons), 17 are back-three players. Three, including Earl, are back row – he joined Neil Back and Thomas Waldrom in that exclusive club, while Cobus Reinach broke the mould as the only representative at scrum-half (Northampton, 2018-19).
Exeter’s Sam Simmonds knows his way to the try-line and is third favourites at 8/1 to become the fourth member of the back-row contingent.
As tempting as it may be to go for a back-rower, or even a hooker like Luke Cowan-Dickie (25/1), the law of averages says that a winger is your best bet.
Wing it
Twelve out of those 21 top try-scorers achieved the feat at a club that finished in the play-off zone, but only twice have they been at the club who finishes first. Table-topping teams like Exeter tend to share their tries around.
Sale Sharks’ team sheet for this weekend gives an indication they are a team to avoid, too, as the likes of Marland Yarde and Denny Solomona will have to work hard to get a regular spot in the team given the wealth of choices. Sometimes you forget Byron McGuigan is still at Sale!
‘Go-to’ men
By contrast, Vereniki Goneva scored nearly a quarter of Newcastle tries (13 out of 55) the year they reached the play-offs for the first time. You want a club who has a ‘go-to man’ for their tries. Josh Adams, who shared the accolade with Goneva in 2017/18, is another example.
So, if we are going for a non-England international, back-three player at a probable top-four club, that leads us in the direction of Bristol Bears and Wasps.
Aussie wing Luke Morahan would have been an obvious pick had he not been ruled out with injury until January, which leaves us with Wasps.
Zach Kibirige (8/1) was like a man transformed last season in running in 10 tries and really looks to have the bit between his teeth, while Josh Bassett (20/1) is quietly effective on the other wing.
Golden season for Jackson?
As for the battle of the Golden Boot, it was won last year by Bath’s Rhys Priestland with a double century of points, accumulated from rounds 1-22.
Priestland is rightly favourite again, especially as Bath have yet to properly reinforce their options at 10, so game time won’t be an issue. He is followed in the betting by Marcus Smith (7/2). Again, no arguments there, seeing as he seems to be on the periphery with England.
Callum Sheedy (6/1) could be set for a decent run in the Wales team, thereby limiting his opportunities with Bristol, while veteran 37-year-old Jimmy Gopperth, at 7/1, may not be such great value as he’ll have to be managed through the season by Wasps.
Like Smith, Exeter’s Joe Simmonds can’t get a look-in with England despite playing out of his skin for the double-winning Chiefs. But the Chiefs don’t kick many penalties and that counts against him being the Premiership’s golden boy.
Duncan Weir is back in the Scotland fold, otherwise, he’d be set fair (or should that be hair?) for a decent go at it.
Rob du Preez and AJ MacGinty are mixed and matched at fly-half by Steve Diamond at Sale, so we’re going to go for London Irish’s Paddy Jackson as our outside bet at 33/1, despite his modest tally of 53 Premiership points last season.
The Ulsterman has taken on a leadership role at the club and is likely to be the Exiles’ frontline kicker now that Stephen Myler has taken his prolific boots off to the Ospreys.
