Great rugby betting shocks -Part 2

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The odds quoted in post-match reports vary greatly from 80/1 to 100/1 but one thing is certain about Japan’s heroic 34-32 win over South Africa at Rugby World Cup 2015 - it ranks right up there as one of the biggest shocks in the sport’s history.

Without a Rugby World Cup win for 24 years and only one victory to their name in 24 previous appearances, the Brave Blossoms’ record at Rugby World Cups was pretty dire when they arrived for their 2015 opener against overwhelming favourites South Africa.

Only four times had South African been beaten in the tournament, and apart from a small handful of lucky punters, nobody had them down for a fifth.

At least Japan did not have any past RWC history against South Africa to weigh them down, this being the first time the nations had met at test level. 

Starting nervously, South Africa coughed up ball time and time again in the opening exchanges and trailed to a Ayumu Goromaru penalty until Francois Louw calmed the nerves with a 17th-minute try from a driving maul.

If that show of force was supposed to put the minnows in their place it clear didn’t work as Japan, having had a try disallowed by the TMO, reclaimed the lead with half an hour gone when captain Michael Leitch stretched out and scored from a driven lineout.

Brighton was rocking for the first time since the Sixties.

Self-belief

“They (Japan) were brilliant. They believed from the first try they could go toe-to-toe with us – and they did,” summed up Springbok prop Tendai Mtawarira.

Japan continued to hold their own at the set-piece, and occasionally gained supremacy at scrum-time, but were powerless to stop South Africa driving over for a second try from a rolling maul, Bismarck du Plessis dotting down to edge South Africa 12-10 in front – a lead they held until half-time.

“I’m not relaxed at all,” admitted South Africa’s RWC 1995-winning captain during his half-time analysis for ITV Sport … “credit to Japan, hats off, now let’s take it to them in the second half.”

Pienaar did not get his wish. The second period began as the first half did – with a Goromaru penalty handing the Brave Blossoms the lead. However, their joy was short-lived as Lood de Jager announced his arrival on the world stage by powering through a gap in midfield to score a try that handed South Africa the lead again.

With the conversion going over, South Africa led 19-13. Surely now it was only a matter of time before the floodgates opened. Instead, two more Goromaru penalties meant it was level pegging. “They never allowed South Africa to get away from them on the scoreboard. They hung in and hung in and were eventually rewarded,” commented former Springbok coach Nick Mallett.

The unthinkable

Pat Lambie and Goromaru traded further penalties and the scores were locked at 22-22 as the final quarter approached. 

Suddenly thoughts turned towards past Rugby World Cup shocks with the consensus that a Japan victory would eclipse anything that had gone before – even Western Samoa’s epic win over Wales in 1991 – a feat they repeated in 1999, when they were known simply as Samoa.

Adrian Strauss hadn’t read that particular script and the giant front-rower, showing a neat turn of pace for such a big man, crashed through some uncharacteristically poor tackling to make South Africa breathe a little easier.

Six minutes is all it took for Japan to respond again though, Goromaru finishing off a wonderful move in the corner and then adding the extras as parity was restored, at 29-29. “You couldn’t write this,” tweeted award-winning author and renowned rugby fan J.K. Rowling as the narrative refused to go to type.

Fulfilling the role of party-pooper, Handre Pollard nailed a penalty to make the scoreline 32-29 to South Africa with seven minutes to go. But there still time for another twist.

Having been held up over the line after countless phases of attacking play, Japan win a penalty at the resulting five-metre scrum. For the second time in the dying throes of the action, Leitch bravely turned down a potential match-equalling kick at goal and opted to pack down again instead. “Wow – biggest call in history of World Cup,” tweeted an excitable Sir Clive Woodward.

The large Japanese contingent inside the Brighton Community Stadium – and a record TV audience of 10 million back at home – held their breath. They need not have worried though, Japan’s scrum held firm, as it did all afternoon, and their adventure was rewarded as they span the ball across the field for Karne Hesketh’s winning try in the left corner. Cue pandemonium in the packed stands.

‘I’m too old for this, at 55, I should be in Barbados watching the cricket. But the history has now changed for Japanese rugby,” said an emotionally drained Eddie Jones at the final whistle.

Boks bounce back

Despite being lambasted for their performance by the Press corps, South Africa put on a creditable showing thereafter to reach the semi-finals while Japan registered two more victories, against Samoa and USA, but cruelly fell just short of making the knockout stages.

Not only did the events in Brighton elevate Japanese rugby to a new level, it was also a game-changer for the Rugby World Cup as a tournament. Buoyed by the Brave Blossoms’ result the majority of tier two nations exceeded their expectations in England and the average winning margin between the established nations and the so-called minnows fell to a record low of 23 points.

South Africa did gain revenge, however, at the next tournament when the sides met in the quarter-finals. But just by getting that far, Japan had again created history.

Bring on 2023!

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