- Clemont -1 on the h'cap v Bristol (10/11, Sky Bet)
- Quins +10 on the h'cap v Munster (10/11, Bet 365)
Clermont Auvergne were kept try-less for the first time in nine matches in losing to Montpellier last weekend. But, otherwise, their attacking game has been on song for a long, long time. They averaged the most points in last season’s Champions Cup and made line breaks and metres at will.
Bristol were similarly emphatic with ball in hand in winning last season’s European Challenge Cup, their first major trophy in 36 years.
And had Bristol been able to call upon key threats like Charles Piutau, Luke Morahan, Semi Radradra and Harry Thacker, Saturday’s lunchtime fixture at Ashton Gate could have been like Rocky V with the teams landing blow after blow.
Bristol have largely got away with their injury and international absentees in the Premiership, with two not wholly convincing wins out of three, but against a side as well versed in the top tier of European competition as Les Jaunards, it might be a different story.
Yes, the return of England trio, Ben Earls, Kyle Sinckler and Max Malins will significantly boost them, as well having Callum Sheedy back from Wales duty.
But it is hard to see how a team with so many internationals themselves, and are masters at getting through to the latter stages of Europe, are only one-point favourites.
Whilst the tries could come from anywhere on Saturday, the Clermont half-backs have been a prolific source in the Top 14 this season, Sebastien Bezy and Camille Lopez contributing nine between them.
Lopez has also been in the form of his life with the goal-kicking tee, landing 21 consecutive kicks. And even if he has a rare off day, Morgan Parra is likely to be back in the side as a back-up.
Bristol will want to put on a show in their first European Cup tie in 13 years but we’re backing Clermont to put another nail in the coffin of the cliché that French sides don’t travel well.
Time for box-office Bath to shine
Taking a look at some of the other rugby betting opportunities this weekend, Bath v Scarlets is an interesting proposition.
Bath’s record in Europe has been underwhelming ever since they reached the last of their Champions Cup quarter-finals in 2014/15. And Scarlets are two wins from two in European visits to The Rec coming into the match.
On the face of it, an 11-point handicap against Bath is over the top, however, they now have three games under their belt in the Premiership and shook off any rust from their opening two games in beating Worcester last time out. Plus, they will have their England cavalry back.
Also, the Scarlets of today are a pale imitation of the sides that won in 2002 and 2018.
Even with the return of their Welsh contingent, Scarlets don’t score enough points to properly hurt a Bath side that can score through the forwards or the backs.
We tip Bath to win by 16-20 points.
Diamond isn’t forever
It’s been a rough Diamond of a week for Sale Sharks, with the Stade Mayol the last place you’d want to go and visit after the heartbeat of the club – DoR Steve Diamond – left in a heartbeat, for reasons undisclosed.
Sale once suffered a 62-0 defeat away to Toulon – the final European match before Diamond replaced John Mitchell in charge of the team – but a repeat of that scoreline is never going to happen.
However, the disruption in the week caused by Diamond’s sudden and unexpected departure will no doubt linger for a while and could be detrimental to the performance of the players he has personally assembled.
Toulon have won all five home games this season and have a record of 18 wins and only six losses against English opposition, and while they aren’t quite as laden with stars as they were in the past, they still ooze quality.
Sale Sharks have better strength in depth than they have ever had but they are only performing in fits and starts, and we think the six-point advantage being given to them won’t be enough.
Quins to conquer double-digit handicap
Meanwhile, Quins have found their mojo in winning well at Northampton and Gloucester and will travel to Thomond Park with no fears.
The Londoners enjoyed a famous win there in 2011, and that’s when the place was packed to the rafters with vociferous fans.
Munster have been ticking along okay in the PRO14 but are they 11 points better than Quins? We think not, especially without the Thomond Park roar behind them.
