Following the government’s recent announcement about the new tier system, due to come into effect once the country comes out of lockdown on 2 December, seven of the 12 Gallagher Premiership clubs will soon be able to open their doors to the public.
Government rules say that crowds can return of up to 50 per cent of the outdoor stadium’s capacity, or 2,000 people – whichever is lower.
Bath, Exeter, Worcester, Gloucester, Harlequins, London Irish, Northampton and Worcester will be permitted to have reduced crowds as clubs in tier 2 areas, while sadly for those in tier 3 – Bristol, Leicester, Newcastle, Sale and Wasps – the wait goes on.
While it is indisputable the return of crowds cannot come soon enough for the financial well-being of clubs and the emotional well-being of their supporters, what effect will it have on results if any?
Normally it’s taken as read that having the majority of the crowd on your side acts like a 16th man/woman/child and helps to motivate the team in question.
Particularly vocal crowds are also reckoned to influence 50:50 calls from officials that may well have gone the other way had there been no baying from the stands.
Also, there’s the convenience of not having to travel and potentially stay overnight and the familiarity of surroundings to consider.
12% swing
In the first 13 rounds of the Gallagher Premiership (before the first national lockdown), 48 out of 78 matches (62%) were won by the team playing on home turf.
Barring two fan return trial events, all the games post-lockdown were played behind closed doors. Incidentally, the two matches where fans were allowed ended in away wins (Bath at Quins and Quins at Gloucester).
However, the overall stats show there is a home advantage to be had by having people cheering you on in person rather than piped noise.
In the final nine rounds of matches in the Gallagher Premiership, only half (27 out of 54) were won by the home side, a drop of 12%.
The future of Gallagher Premiership rugby clubs depends on a crowd, and so it seems, does the result of matches.
