Your weekend treble …
- Georgia +38 v South Africa (10/11)
- Wales -38 v Canada (10/11)
- England -37 v USA (10/11)
With the opening matches of British and Irish Lions tours notoriously difficult to predict and New Zealand versus Tonga expected to be a massive blow-out to the All Blacks, that leaves us with South versus Georgia, Ireland versus Japan, Wales versus Canada, and England versus the USA as games worth a wager on.
And out of the four, England look a banker of a bet at -37 on the handicap. The Eagles haven’t played together since Rugby World Cup 2019, a tournament in which they lost 45-7 to England, albeit when they were down to 14 men following the dismissal of John Quill, and won’t be able to match England for power or speed.
The loss of AJ MacGinty to injury at fly-half is a significant blow, while leading figures such as Blaine Scully are no longer on the scene having retired post-Japan 2019.
Major League Rugby has helped bridge the gap between club rugby and Test rugby in the States but the gulf is still massive. The Eagles field an uncapped trio in fly-half Luke Carty, flanker Riekert Hattingh and winger Mika Kruse , while No.8 Cam Dolan, formerly of Norhtampton, is their most experienced player with 51 caps.
The Eagles do not score enough points and until they do so, everyone will always talk about their potential rather than their performances as a rugby nation. In each of the last seven internationals, they have failed to score more than 20 points, and in three previous visits to Twickenham, they have failed to get into double figures.
Defensively, England should not have too many problems – although replacement hooker Joe Taufete’e is worth keeping an eye on for an anytime try-scorer bet given his impressive strike rate of 20 tries in 27 Test appearances – whilst in attack, England have players ready to prove to Eddie Jones he was wrong to overlook them for so long.
It is quite conceivable that England will go past the 50-point mark, whereas it is hard to envisage the Eagles scoring more than one try.
Canada have been usurped by the Eagles as North America’s No.1 team and will have to pull out all the stops to keep the deficit against Wales to less thsn 38 points, even though the home side are missing a plethora of stars on Lions duty.
Head coach Kingsley Jones and assistant Rob Howley will have tjeir side fired up as they return to their motherland but there’s no hiding from the fact that the one-time World Cup quarter-finalists are a shadow of the side that was a force to be reckoned pre-professionalism.
Lelos are better than the handicap suggests
Whilst we are backing the favourites to defy the handicapper in London and Cardiff, Georgia could strike a blow for the underdogs in Pretoria
South Africa include seven of the team that played in the Rugby World Cup 2019 final victory against England, but to expect them to beat Georgia by as big a margin as 38 points on Friday night, in what is their first hit-out since then, is a big ask.
The Springboks are still the world’s number one team – but only by default – and are perhaps not as good as many people think.
The brand of rugby they played to lift the Webb Ellis Cup was very simple and rugby has moved on since then. Harlequins’ victory in the Gallagher Premiership proved that a more attack-minded approach can also bring success.
Whilst the Springboks haven’t played since claiming their third world title in Yokohama, Georgia have had plenty of meaningful fixtures, firstly in the Autumn Nations Cup and then the Rugby Europe Championship.
The Lelos were beaten 40-0 by England in their first ANC game but improved with every game thereafter and actually ‘drew’ the second half with Ireland.
Renowned for their forward power, Georgia have also made strides in their back play, marshalled by exciting young half-backs, Vasil Lobzhanidze and Tedo Abzhandadze.
Captain Merab Sharikadze and Giorgi Kveseladze form an affective centre partnership and 18-year-old Davit Niniashvili is an increasing threat from full-back.
The Lelos go into their first clash with the Springboks with yet another Rugby Europe Championship title under their belts and are not to be taken lightly.
Brave Blossoms to run Ireland close
Having lost to them at the last Rugby World Cup, there is no danger of Ireland being complacent against Japan in our final featured match.
The Brave Blossoms paid the price for a somewhat inevitable slow start against the Lions at Murrayfield last weekend, but were arguably the better side in the second half as they went down to a 28-10 defeat.
Still playing the fast-tempo game that got them to a Rugby World Cup quarter-final, Asia’s finest created plenty of scoring opportunities are were perhaps unlucky in the end to lose by an 18-point margin.
Bereft of their Lions, Ireland field a new-look side that contains only five players – Chris Farrell, Jacob Stockdale, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony and James Ryan – started against Japan in the last encounter between the two sides.
Ireland should win but the 10-point handicap offered to Japan looks on the generous side.
