Japan, like the British & Irish Lions’ main series opponents South Africa, haven’t played a Test match since they reached the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2019.
Going without a Test match for nigh on 20 minths is clearly not ideal and the Lions are rightly favourites to take tomorrow’s clash at Murrayfield.
Losing two Scots in Hamish Watson (concussion) and Zander Fagerson (back spasm) and replacing them with 2017 tourists Justin Tipuric and Tadhg Furlong, shows the strength in depth that Warren Gatland has at his disposal.
However, by keeping faith with many of the players that delivered a first-ever Rugby World Cup quarter-final, Brave Blossoms head coach Jamie Joseph will be working with a group familiar with not only his systems but also each other.
Two-thirds of the starters from their quarter-final against the Springboks line up again in Edinburgh and there’s only one debutant in the side in winger Siosaia Fifita.
Fast and loose
Our belief is that the Brave Blossoms, who let’s not forget are ranked 10th in the world, can overcome the handicap.
The Lions will be preparing for the physicality of the Springboks not the fleet footedness of Japan and so won’t have a game-plan specifically suited to this match.
Also, as the Lions are still very much in the ‘getting to know each other’ phase, mistakes are bound to creep into their play.
For a brilliant counter-attacking side like Japan, that could be manor from heaven. The Lions’ defence is coached by Steve Tandy, who has transformed Scotland’s rearguard in the last two seasons.
But we’d still back the Brave Blossoms to fire a few shots and go over 2.5 tries (4/6, Paddy Power).
France’s Pascal Gauzere has the whistle for this match in Edinburgh – and it will be his final Test as a referee because he is retiring after this fixture.
Gauzere won’t want a damp squib of a match as his swansong so the game should be allowed to flow.
Each team to score one or more tries in each half looks a steal, and is also 4/6.
British & Irish Lions: Liam Williams; Josh Adams, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Duhan van der Merwe; Dan Biggar, Conor Murray; Rory Sutherland, Ken Owens, Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson, Alun Wyn Jones (captain), Tadhg Beirne, Justin Tipuric, Jack Conan.
Replacements: Jamie George, Wyn Jones, Kyle Sinckler, Courtney Lawes, Taulupe Faletau, Ali Price, Owen Farrell, Anthony Watson.
Japan: Ryohei Yamanaka; Kotaro Matsushima, Timothy Lafaele, Ryoto Nakamura, Siosaia Fifita; Yu Tamura, Kaito Shigeno; Keita Inagaki, Atsushi Sakate, Ji-won Koo, Wimpie van der Walt, James Moore, Michael Leitch (captain), Lappies Labuschagne, Amanaki Mafi.
Replacements: Kosuke Horikoshi, Craig Millar, Asaeli Ai Valu, Jack Cornelsen, Kazuki Himeno, Tevita Tatafu, Naoto Saito, Rikiya Matsuda.
