- Leinster -10 (10/11)
- Toulouse -13 (10/11)
- Clermont/Racing Over 46.5pts (10/11)
With home wins accounting for 76 per cent of the overall total at the quarter-final stage of the Heineken Champions Cup, a four-team acca on Leinster, Toulouse, Cermont and Exeter looks quite attractive at just under 2/1.
But there’s value to be had in the individual markets too.
Take Leinster v Saracens, for example.
Yes, Saracens are the defending champions and have been homing in on this game for a while amidst the distractions of the league but it’s difficult to see them just flicking on a switch and upping their game several levels to trouble Leinster’s ‘Invincibles’.
After becoming the first side to lift the Celtic League in three consecutive seasons, Leinster now have a historic fifth Heineken Cup title in their sights.
In Dublin, they very rarely come off second-best, losing just three of their 68 games in the Irish capital, and they’re favourites to keep their long unbeaten run going.
Saracens clearly have their own pedigree – winning eight of their nine quarter-finals at this level – but the demands of the Premiership season and the loss of kingpin, Owen Farrell, will harm their chances of an upset.
A dodgy lineout and a scrum that hasn’t functioned as they’d have hoped also count against them, while the consistency of selection that Leinster enjoy has not been possible due to rotation policy needed to get through their crowded fixture list.
Saracens will have to be at their defensive best to be in with a chance as Leinster possess so many threats across the park. As many as 40 different players have scored for them this season so we’d advise against a try-scorer bet!
Leinster to storm to victory – by 20 points.
Toulouse, to win!
As for their PRO14 Irish rivals, Ulster, it is very hard to see them registering a rare win on French soil.
Still shell-shocked from their 27-5 PRO14 final defeat by Leinster in Dublin last week, they suffered a big blow this week with the news that Marcell Coetzee – their go-to man in the ball-carrying stakes – has failed to shake of an injury.
European talisman John Cooney is back at nine but the Ireland international has been struggling to recpature the form that saw him surge to the top of the Champions Cup point-scoring charts.
His 71 points from six games, including five tries, accounted for 56% of Ulster’s points in the pool stages and, for our mind, they are too heavily reliant on him to keep the scoreboard ticking over, especially with Jacob Stockdale below-par as well.
The vast majority of Toulouse’s side have played together through the age-group system and have plenty of cohesion plus some star dust in the likes of Joe Tekori and Cheslin Kolbe.
They very rarely lose in Toulouse and we can see them running away with this – again by more than 20 points.
X-rated Sandy Park clash
One thing you don’t want to do is upset the Chiefs, and it appears that that is exactly what Northampton have done with their very public carping about the front-row regulations.
Saints have looked a shambles of a side in all aspects of their game, while the Exeter bandwagon just keeps rolling on. European glory as so far alluded the side from Devon but they should take another step towards that goal at Sandy Park with a comfortable victory.
Confidence is coarsing through their veins whereas Saints cannot seem to catch a break – or the ball,
Chiefs to score 40 points +
Michelin starred encounter
Not much separates these two Top 14 rivals who have both experienced final heartache many times before.
Clermont won’t have their usual yellow army roaring them on due to the crowd restrictions so home advantage, which is normally key for them, won’t be as much of a factor.
Racing have looked on song from an attacking point of view in moving to the top of the embryonic Top 14 table with wins against Lyon and a hammering of Montpellier, while Clermont struggled to put away 13-man Toulouse in Round 1 and conceded 30 points in the process before bouncing back against La Rochelle.
No team scored more points than Clermont in the group stages; 207 to be precise, averaging 34.5 per game, while Racing plundered the third most (196) with only first seeds Leinster edging them with 199.
Racing have made the most metres (2,932), made the most breaks (85) and beaten the most defenders (197) of any team in the competition which is all the more impressive when you consider they fought both Saracens and Munster in the Pool.
And with Finn Russell and Camille Lopez putting tries on a plate for their team-mates, the market of over 46.5 points looks a sound bet.
