George Ford’s absence from Leicester’s early pre-season games led to questions being asked about his fitness, and also raised concerns that his dad Mike’s departure from the club might have caused a rift between himself and DoR Steve Borthwick.
A niggling calf problem plagued Ford all season in 2020/21 and restricted him to just nine games for the Tigers in all competitions. However, the 77-times capped England international played from the start in the recent narrow defeat to Scarlets and even came up with a try assist from the new 50:22 law being trialled in the Gallagher Premiership in 2021/22.
Whilst there’s no doubt the fly-half will be looking to move on at the end of the season when his current contract allows him to, we’re confident Ford will be fully focused on helping the Tigers continue their improvement under Borthwick.
Still only 28, Ford’s points will be crucial in achieving that goal, just as they were from saving the Tigers from the ignominy of relegation in the 2018/19 season when only Newcastle kept them off the bottom of the table.
Ford’s tally of 221 points in that campaign almost single-handedly kept the Tigers up and saw him finish as the league’s top points-scorer for the second time in his career. The first time he achieved the feat was in 2013/14 when with Bath, this time with 250 points to his name.
So why can he do it again?
First and foremost, Ford looks to be England’s forgotten man at fly-half and, therefore, will be available for the majority of the campaign if he stays injury free.
Ford was rested from England’s July internationals and whilst he still has every chance to add further caps to his name, Eddie Jones is likely to increasingly turn to younger options such as Marcus Smith and Jacob Umaga.
Smith really put his hand up against USA and Canada and Umaga overcame a mid-season blip in form to finish the season strongly for Wasps.
In 22 previous seasons of Premiership rugby, the top points-scorer played in 15 games or more. Predicting what Eddie Jones is thinking is no easy task but if Ford is left out in the cold, he will most probably start ahead of Freddie Burns as the Leicester No.10 in the majority of games.
In terms of their points per game average, all previous top points-scorers were in double figures. Only those kickers with a good percentage capable of making the most of their opportunities in front of goal should be considered as a result. In the last three seasons, Ford (a generous 40/1 with Boyle Sports) has been hovering just below or just above the very respectable 85% mark.
As an Englishman, the odds are also weighted in Ford’s favour. In exactly half the 22 seasons to date, the top points scorer has been from England: Alex King, Andy Goode (four times), Charlie Hodgson, Tom Homer, Andy Farrell, Marcus Smith and Ford (twice).
Another fact in Ford’s favour is that, historically, the top points-scorer does not come from the champions, Whilst we expect Leicester to do well and back them to reach the play-offs at 11/2, going all the way to Twickenham may be beyond them. Only four times has the top points-scorer been from the champion club: Alex King (Wasps, 2003), Charlie Hodgson (Sale, 2006), Owen Farrell (Saracens, 2018) and Marcus Smith (Quins, 2021).
Smith is favourite (3/1 with Boyle Sports) to win the accolade again, followed by Joe Simmonds. Simmonds, however, is always handicapped by the fact Exeter rarely kick penalties.
AJ MacGinty (6/1) is currently focused on the US Eagles’ Rugby World Cup 2023 qualification bid and has a history of breaking down. The Dublin-born player’s goal-kicking was also strangely off colour in the Eagles’ recent clash with Canada, with MacGinty only bagging one of his six conversions attempts.
Barring injury, Paddy Jackson (6/1) is likely to play the majority of games but London Irish do not score enough points to encourage us to back him, especially not at those odds, while Owen Farrell’s England duties count against him as a 7/1 shot.
The same applies to Welsh duo, Callum Sheedy (16/1) and Dan Biggar (25/1), in that international rugby may get in the way.
As for Gloucester candidates, Billy Twelvetrees (14/1) is inconsistent and may have to fight for the tee at Kingsholm with new boy Adam Hastings (33/1).
Ben Spencer (20/1) is ridiculously short odds, bearing in mind he is only an occasional kicker. But the 50/1 about Bath team-mate, Danny Cipriani could represent value if the playmaker can get his head down. That said, Cipriani has never reached the magical double ton mark, and has only gone close twice, in 2008 and 2016.
